The author is chair of Marshall Wace, a multi-strategy investment manager
本文作者是多策略投資管理公司Marshall Wace的董事長
The US equity market has greeted the US election result with a celebratory run. I share the optimism. On almost every dimension, the policy mix is positive for US equities — deregulation, tax cuts, lower energy costs. What is not to like? It is also being implemented against a background of falling interest rates.
美國股市以一波歡慶的漲勢回應了美國大選的結果。我也同樣樂觀。從幾乎每個維度來看，政策組合對美國股市都是有利的——監管放鬆、減稅、降低能源成本。有什麼不好的呢？而且，這些政策還將在利率不斷下降的背景下實施。
The only caveats to this positive outlook are the following. First, tariffs and immigration control are both inflationary and so the rate-cutting cycle will probably be shallower. The markets already revised up the level at which US rates will settle in this cycle from 3.4 per cent to 3.75 per cent in the run-up to the election.
但對於這種樂觀的預期，還有些事情需要預先提醒：首先，關稅和移民控制措施都會引發通膨，因此降息週期可能會變得更淺。在大選之前，市場對於美國在這一降息週期中最終利率水準的預期已經從之前的3.4%上調至3.75%。