登錄×
電子郵件/用戶名
密碼
記住我

為您推薦

債市

Bond investors cheer Christine Lagarde』s nomination for ECB presidency
債市看好拉加德獲歐洲央行行長提名

市場認為,從拉加德之前支持德拉吉推出創新貨幣政策看,她應該屬於鴿派陣營,將延續歐元區超寬鬆貨幣政策時代。

The global bond market enjoyed a powerful rally on Wednesday as investors bet that Christine Lagarde』s nomination to be the next president of the European Central Bank will extend an era of ultra-loose monetary policy in the eurozone.

全球債券市場周三強勁上漲,投資者押注,克里斯蒂娜•拉加德(Christine Lagarde)被提名為歐洲央行(ECB)下一任行長,將延續歐元區超寬鬆貨幣政策時代。

Bond prices have been on a tear since late last year as, one by one, central banks have indicated concern about the global economy and switched to a more dovish stance.

債券價格自去年底以來呈現漲勢,因為各大央行一個接一個表達對全球經濟的擔憂,並轉向更為鴿派的姿態。

Outgoing ECB boss Mario Draghi is readying interest rate cuts and a revival of the bank』s bond-buying quantitative easing programme, while the US Federal Reserve is also set to trim rates this summer, at least according to derivatives traders.

即將離任的歐洲央行掌門人馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)正準備降息並重啟該央行買入債券的量化寬鬆計劃,而美聯儲(Federal Reserve)也將在今夏降息——至少衍生品交易員們是這麼認為的。

Ms Lagarde』s appointment, which has to be rubber-stamped by the European Parliament, is expected to bring more of the same accommodative monetary policy.

拉加德的任命仍須由歐洲議會(European Parliament)加蓋橡皮圖章。預計她將帶來更多相同的寬鬆貨幣政策。

「Markets are unfamiliar with her academic monetary leanings,」 said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. 「Yet, going by her previous support of Draghi』s decisions to introduce innovative monetary policies, they are making the safe assumption that she is in the dovish camp.」

「市場不熟悉她的貨幣政策理念傾向,」Principal Global Investors的首席策略師Seema Shah表示。「然而,根據她之前支持德拉吉推出創新貨幣政策的決策,市場對於她屬於鴿派陣營的假設是靠譜的。」

European bond yields, which move inversely to prices, fell deeper into negative territory on Wednesday morning. The yield on Germany』s 10-year bond, which serves as a benchmark for the region, hit a record low of minus 0.397 per cent, just a whisker above the ECB』s deposit rate of minus 0.4 per cent. France』s 10-year yield sank further below zero, touching minus 0.09 per cent. Two-year yields across the entire eurozone are now sub-zero.

歐洲債券收益率(與價格反向變動)周三上午跌至更深的負值區間。作為歐洲基準的德國10年期國債收益率創下-0.397%的歷史新低,僅略高於歐洲央行-0.4%的存款利率。法國10年期國債收益率在零下方進一步下跌,觸及-0.09%。整個歐元區的兩年期國債收益率現在均低於零。

Italian bonds were the strongest in the pack, boosted further by news that the populist government has avoided censure from the EU over its newly revised spending plans. Ten-year Italian government debt yields have sunk to just under 1.7 per cent, the bonds』 strongest level since the government was formed last year.

義大利債券的表現最為強勁,原因是有消息稱,該國的民粹主義政府躲過了歐盟對其新修訂的支出計劃的譴責。10年期義大利政府債券收益率已跌至略低於1.7%,這是自本屆聯合政府去年成立以來的最強勁水平。

Emerging market bonds also enjoyed a Wednesday bounce.

新興市場債券也在周三大漲。

A powerful rally was already under way across the Atlantic, where the yield on the 10-year US Treasury hit a fresh two-and-a-half-year low of 1.94 per cent on Wednesday. Recent data from the world』s largest economy has been mixed and the latest set of figures were disappointing: US private sector hiring failed to pick up as much as hoped in June, and economic activity in the service sector cooled to its lowest level in two years, according to separate reports released on Wednesday.

在大西洋彼岸,一輪強勁漲勢已經持續了一段時間,10年期美國國債收益率周三觸及1.94%這一新的兩年半低點。世界最大經濟體的近期數據有好有壞,最新一組數據令人失望:根據周三分別發布的報告,美國私營部門6月招聘人數未能達到預期,同時服務業經濟活動降至兩年來最低水平。

The 10-year Treasury is most sensitive to investors』 view of the long-term economic outlook. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which is more sensitive to Federal Reserve monetary policy, was little changed on Wednesday, having already priced in imminent rate cuts.

10年期美國國債對投資者對長期經濟前景的看法最為敏感。對美聯儲貨幣政策更加敏感的兩年期美國國債收益率周三幾乎沒有變化,因其已將短期內降息計入價格。

US President Donald Trump』s two nominees for the board of the Fed, announced late on Tuesday, are seen to be in the dovish camp. Judy Shelton, a former adviser to Mr Trump, last month told the Washington Post she thought interest rates should be cut 「as fast as possible」. The second nominee, Christopher Waller, has worked under James Bullard at the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, who was the only member of the Fed』s rate-setting committee who called for an immediate rate cut at its most recent meeting.

美國總統唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)在周二晚些時候宣布的兩位美聯儲董事會候選人被視為屬於鴿派陣營。特朗普前顧問朱迪•謝爾頓(Judy Shelton)上月告訴《華盛頓郵報》(Washington Post),她認為應該「儘快」降息。第二位被提名人克里斯托弗•沃勒(Christopher Waller)此前在聖路易斯聯儲(St Louis Fed)行長詹姆斯•布拉德(James Bullard)手下工作,而後者是美聯儲利率制定委員會中唯一在最近一次會議上呼籲立即降息的成員。

Markets are now convinced that looser monetary policy is on the way from several central banks, an assumption that has added fuel to a broad-based fixed income rally in 2019 and pushed the average yield of $57tn of global bonds down to just 1.67 per cent.

市場現在確信,幾大央行都將出台更加寬鬆的貨幣政策,這一假設推動固定收益資產在2019年全面上漲,並將全球57兆美元債券的平均收益率壓低至僅1.67%。

譯者/和風

版權聲明:本文版權歸FT中文網所有,未經允許任何單位或個人不得轉載,複製或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵權必究。

讀者評論

FT中文網歡迎讀者發表評論,部分評論會被選進《讀者有話說》欄目。我們保留編輯與出版的權利。
用戶名
密碼
-->*%>
設置字號×
最小
較小
默認
較大
最大
分享×