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比亞迪

Lex_Chinese electric vehicles/BYD: no free ride
Lex專欄:補貼消失後的比亞迪

比亞迪正面臨一些短期挑戰,包括業務多元化,減少對大客戶銷售依賴,同時保持與今年首季類似規模的增長。

When Warren Buffett invests in a company no one』s heard of in China, people pay attention. Eleven years later, BYD remains unfamiliar to some. It is now the world』s biggest electric vehicle maker. Chinese EV producers including BYD have relied heavily on national subsidies. Beijing will reduce these by up to two-thirds from this year. Phase out will be complete in 2020. That means BYD profits, buoyed by more than $1bn in grants over the past five years, should take a hit. 

當沃倫•巴菲特(Warren Buffett)投資於一家在中國國內沒有人聽說過的中國公司時,人們會關注。11年後,比亞迪(BYD)對一部分人來說仍然陌生。它現在是世界上最大的電動汽車製造商。包括比亞迪在內的中國電動車製造企業嚴重依賴國家補貼。北京方面將從今年起減少這些補貼,削減幅度最高達到三分之二。到2020年將徹底取消補貼。這意味著,在過去五年里得到逾10億美元補貼提振的比亞迪的利潤,將會受到打擊。

First-quarter profit was up 632 per cent to $111m over the year. The number of electric cars sold more than doubled. Its share price did little. As government subsidies fall, its shares could too. China』s EV market is crowded, with more than 400 makers. BYD』s battery business, an IPO is due by 2022, should suffer from weak battery prices. 

第一季度利潤同比增長632%,至1.11億美元。電動車銷量增加一倍多。該公司的股價幾乎沒有上漲。隨著政府補貼下降,其股價也可能下跌。中國的電動車市場擁擠不堪,有400多家製造企業。將於2022年首次公開發行(IPO)的比亞迪電池業務,應該會受到電池價格疲軟的打擊。

However, Chinese subsidies will move to cleaner, faster-charging hydrogen fuel cell vehicles which BYD expects to produce. Beijing targets 1m hydrogen vehicles on the road by 2030. Bullish analysts expect over double this. Last year there were just 5,000. Beijing has initially supported research on fuel cells and charging stations. Hydrogen fuel cells are better for bigger, heavier loads over longer distances. It plans with a US partner to make buses fuelled by hydrogen.

然而,中國的補貼將轉向比亞迪預計將會生產的更清潔、充電更快的氫燃料電池汽車。北京的目標是到2030年有100萬輛氫燃料汽車在全國道路上行駛。樂觀的分析師預計屆時實際數量將多出一倍。去年只有5000輛。北京已在初期階段支持對燃料電池和充電站的研究。氫燃料電池更適用於較長路程和更大更重的負載。比亞迪計劃與一家美國合作夥伴聯手製造以氫為燃料的巴士。

Even so, BYD』s share price is below their late 2009 Buffet-fuelled peak, trading at an optimistic 33 times forward earnings, more than triple local peers. Despite Beijing』s hopes for hydrogen, BYD will not soon reap any benefits. Meanwhile, its operating profits, from batteries and EVs, have tracked sideways for several years. 

即便如此,比亞迪的股價仍低於2009年末被巴菲特投資推上的巔峰(交易價格為33倍預期盈利,市盈率超過中國業內同行兩倍多)。儘管北京方面對氫能抱有期待,但比亞迪不會很快獲益。與此同時,其電池和電動車業務的營業利潤已連續數年徘徊不前。

BYD has long-term promise, but some short-term challenges. These include diversifying away from fleet sales while maintaining growth at a similar level as the first quarter. This partly explains why BYD trades about half of Tesla』s forward enterprise to ebitda multiple. Those keen on BYD should approach it with an investment horizon as long as Mr Buffett』s.

比亞迪長遠而言有希望,但顯然面臨一些短期挑戰。其中包括業務多元化,減少對車隊銷售的依賴,同時保持與首季類似的增長。這在一定程度上解釋了,比亞迪的預期企業價值與息稅折舊及攤銷前利潤(EBITDA)之比,為什麼只有特斯拉(Tesla)的大約一半。看好比亞迪的人,應該具備像巴菲特那樣的長遠投資眼光。

Lex專欄是由FT評論員聯合撰寫的短評,對全球經濟與商業進行精闢分析

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