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美朝關係

South Korean former general warns US against strike on north
韓國退役將軍警告美國不要貿然對朝發動襲擊

曾任韓軍特種部隊指揮官的全仁釩稱,美國若採取軍事行動,需要準備好同一個重度軍事化的對手進行長期消耗戰。

One of South Korea』s most distinguished former generals has warned the US there could be no quick military victory against North Korea, casting doubt on Washington』s plans to deliver a 「bloody nose」 attack to force Kim Jong Un to scale back his nuclear ambitions.

韓國最知名的退役將軍之一警告美國,對朝鮮不可能取得快速軍事勝利,他質疑華盛頓發起猛烈軍事打擊以迫使金正恩(Kim Jong Un)放棄核武野心的計劃。

Chun In-bum, who served for almost 40 years in the South Korean army and commanded the special forces, said the US would need to be prepared for a long, attritional war against a heavily militarised opponent.

曾在韓國陸軍服役近40年、並擔任過特種部隊指揮官的全仁釩(Chun In-bum)表示,美國若採取軍事行動,就需要準備好同一個重度軍事化的對手進行長期消耗戰。

「If we have to go into North Korea, it is not going to be like going into Iraq or Afghanistan,」 Mr Chun told an audience at the Policy Exchange, a London think-tank. 「It』s not going to be like toppling [Saddam] Hussein.

「如果我們不得不攻打北韓,情況將不會像進入伊拉克或阿富汗那樣,」全仁釩在倫敦智庫Policy Exchange對聽眾表示,「這將不會像推翻(薩達姆)侯賽因(Hussein)那樣。」

「This would be more like trying to get rid of Allah. King Jong Un and his family are a cult . . . It will be a toothache like pulling out all of your teeth」.

「這將更像是試圖除掉安拉(Allah)。金正恩及其家族是一個邪教……那將是像拔掉所有牙齒一樣的鑽心之痛。」

Mr Chun』s comments come as relations between North and South Korea are starting to thaw following a year of missile tests by Pyongyang and rising tensions between Mr Kim, the North』s supreme leader, and Donald Trump, US president.

全仁釩是在朝韓關係開始解凍之際發表上述言論的,此前一年,平壤多次試射導彈,而其最高領導人金正恩與美國總統唐納德•特朗普(Donald Trump)之間的緊張不斷升級。

This week delegates from the north and the south met for the first time in two years, with Mr Kim agreeing to send a team of athletes to the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics in South Korea next month.

本周,朝韓兩國代表舉行了兩年來的首次會晤,金正恩同意派一支運動員代表隊參加下月舉行的韓國平昌冬奧會。

However, while Mr Trump has not ruled out future peace talks, the fresh discussions between the two Koreas risk undermining the 「maximum pressure」 approach of the US.

然而,儘管特朗普並未排除未來進行和談的可能性,但朝韓之間的對話可能會破壞美國對朝施加「最大壓力」的做法。

In recent months US military chiefs have raised the possibility of a pre-emptive attack to signal Washington』s determination to resolve the crisis, including a strike on an air base or naval facility or bombing one of Mr Kim』s homes.

近幾個月,美國軍方領導人提出了先發制人打擊的可能性——包括對某個空軍基地或海軍設施發動空襲,或是轟炸金正恩的某處住所——以表明華盛頓方面解決朝核危機的決心。

Mr Chun warned against any sudden moves. 「No one likes surprises,」 he said, adding that North Korea had not yet acquired the capability to hit Washington with a nuclear warhead despite testing three intercontinental ballistic missiles and conducting its sixth nuclear test in the past year.

全仁釩警告不要採取任何貿然行動。他說:「沒人喜歡突然襲擊。」他還表示,朝鮮尚未具備用核彈頭攻擊華盛頓的能力,儘管朝鮮在過去一年試射三枚洲際彈道導彈並進行了第六次核試驗。

「This is where the window still exists for them to cease. If they want to broker a deal with the Americans, they need to do it now,」 said Mr Chun.

全仁釩說:「這是他們仍可以抓住的懸崖勒馬的機會。如果他們希望與美國達成什麼協議,他們需要現在開始行動。」

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