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法國

The French begin their own display of cognitive dissonance
法國大選擾動歐洲

巴黎政治學院教授霍華德•戴維斯:所有主要候選人都承諾要調整歐洲政策。勒龐主張回歸法郎,梅朗雄希望約束歐洲央行,奧朗德主張重新談判財政協議重新,薩科齊要求修改《申根協定》。無論誰最終贏得大選,都會給布魯塞爾、柏林和倫敦帶來麻煩。

The French presidential campaign is an example of a quintessentially European form of cognitive dissonance. All the major candidates have made commitments on their Europe policies – to renegotiate this, or abandon that – which may appeal to elements of their target market, but which will not go down well with the Chablis at the first EU summit after their election.

法國總統大選是展示典型的歐洲式認知失調的一個例子。所有主要候選人都已經對自己的歐洲政策做出承諾,他們要麼主張對一些問題重新談判,要麼主張摒棄某些現有的政策。這些承諾或許能吸引其各自目標市場的部分民眾,但當他們在當選總統後品著夏布利(Chablis)葡萄酒參加第一場歐盟(EU)峰會時,這些論調卻不會受到歡迎。

Should one simply classify these declarations as flights of fancy, articulated in the heat of battle, and pay little heed? Perhaps, but one cannot exclude the possibility that at election time politicians, freed from the constraints of office, may be saying what they really think or, indeed, what they think the people really think. And it just may be that they will feel the need at least to attempt to deliver on their promises.

我們是否可以把這些表態僅僅當作選戰最激烈時的異想天開,從而置之不理?或許可以,但是我們並不能排除這樣一種可能性:政治人物在競選時,由於不受職務的種種約束,所以其言論代表真實的想法,或者說實際上代表他們心目中民眾的真實想法。況且他們或許也會認為,至少應當嘗試兌現競選時許下的諾言。

The election takes place at a difficult moment for the European project. This ought to benefit Marine Le Pen and the National Front, who want a return to the franc. Whether it would be a franc fort or a franc faible is not spelt out. But though the travails of the eurozone have given her a good song to sing, there are not yet enough voters prepared to join in the chorus.

本次大選正值歐洲一體化進程面臨困難之際。這一點應該會讓主張重新啟用法郎的馬琳•勒龐(Marine Le Pen)和她的國民陣線(National Front)受益。但她並沒有闡述會採取強勢法郎還是弱勢法郎的政策。不過儘管歐元區當下的艱難處境讓勒龐可以大做文章,但並沒有足夠多的選民接受她的觀點。

More significant, perhaps, is the rhetoric adopted by Jean-Luc Melenchon of the Left Front. He has been the big winner of the campaign so far, threatening to push Ms Le Pen into fourth place in the first round. If he does, there will be a price to pay by François Hollande, who remains the favourite to triumph in the second, for his endorsement. Mr Melenchon is not a deep thinker on European policy, but he has firm views on the European Central Bank, which he would like to see under political control. Mr Hollande is unlikely to be pushed so far, but he favours giving the ECB a dual mandate like that of the Federal Reserve, with priority given also to full employment – not self-evidently an absurd proposition. This would be part of the intergovernmental treaty renegotiation, to which he is firmly committed.

更重要的或許是左翼陣線(Left Front)候選人讓-呂克•梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)的言論。到目前為止他都是競選中的大贏家,大有將勒龐在第一輪投票中的得票率壓到第四位的勢頭。如果梅朗雄的確能超越勒龐,那麼目前仍然最有望在第二輪投票中勝出的弗朗索瓦•奧朗德(François Hollande)要想博得梅朗雄的支持,就需要付出一定的代價。梅朗雄對歐洲政策並沒有深入的思考,但他對歐洲央行(ECB)卻有堅定的觀點,他希望讓歐洲央行受到政治控制。奧朗德的立場被推到這麼遠的可能性不大,不過他主張對歐洲央行賦予像美聯儲(Fed)一樣的雙重使命,而且政策重心也應側重充分就業,這個主張乍看上去並不荒唐。並且這一主張會成為歐洲各國政府對新財政協議重新展開談判的一部分,奧朗德會堅定推動這一談判。

He has attracted much criticism for his hostile stance on the treaty, which many think he will quietly abandon if elected. I wonder whether they are right to dismiss the renegotiation idea as mere posturing. By the second round of the French election the treaty will have been signed but not ratified, and it is by no means clear that the eurozone will survive intact with only fiscal austerity and a modest increase in support funds.

他對新財政協議的敵視態度招致了許多批評,很多人估計他在當選後就會悄悄摒棄這種立場。這些人不以為意地認為奧朗德重新談判的想法僅僅是在擺姿態,我倒懷疑這些人的觀點是否正確。到法國大選第二輪投票舉行之時,新財政協議應該已經簽署但尚未獲得批準,而且誰都不知道僅靠財政緊縮和紓困基金規模的有限擴大,歐元區是否能完好無損。

Mr Hollande has openly questioned the continued viability of the Franco-German motor, now conveniently dubbed 「Merkozy」. He wonders aloud whether it has recently been influenced by France at all. In saying so he reflects a view widely held in the French administration, and not just in the Socialist party. Many in Paris are deeply sceptical about the terms of the treaty. They fear distancing themselves from the Germans, but they fear the consequences of following their hard economic line even more.

奧朗德對於法德兩國對新財政協議的聯合推動——法德聯手已被戲稱為「默科齊」(Merkozy)——公開提出過質疑。奧朗德還曾公開質問法國最近在其中到底有沒有產生過影響。他的這番話不僅反映了社會黨(Socialist Party)的態度,也反映了法國政府內部廣泛認同的態度。在巴黎,許多人對協議的條款都抱有深深的懷疑。他們擔心疏遠德國,但更擔心繼續對德國強硬的經濟政策亦步亦趨所造成的後果。

Which leaves President Sarkozy. He has said France will cut its contribution to the EU budget, which hints at another rerun of the British rebate debate. More importantly, he has called for a Europe that 「protects」 its citizens. The subtext is clear: part of Europe』s response to the crisis must be to put up the barriers, to both immigration and foreign competition. The French now support measures to exclude foreign firms from public contracts if their home countries do not allow reciprocal access, and he has said that if the Schengen agreement is not revised within a year, France will leave unilaterally.

最後是法國總統尼古拉•薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)。薩科齊已表示,法國將削減對歐盟預算的出資份額,這意味著有關英國返款的爭論將再次上演。更重要的是,薩科齊呼籲建立一個「保護」其公民的歐洲。他的言外之意顯然是:歐洲的危機應對措施應包括加高針對移民和外國競爭的壁壘。法國目前支持採取措施禁止外國企業獲得公共合同,除非這些企業所在國家提供互惠的市場準入。薩科齊還表示,如果不在一年內修改《申根協定》(Schengen Agreement),法國將單方面退出該協定。

This latter commitment may not be as tough as it sounds. There is already a process of review under way, which in fact the French have been leading. But the broader aim of a protected European market is more menacing if the French pursue it with determination, and when they settle on a European policy they are rarely backward in coming forward.

最後一句承諾可能不像聽起來那麼強硬。有關方面已經開始重新審閱《申根協定》——實際上一直是法國在主導該進程。但就保護歐洲市場這個更大的目標而言,如果法國決心推動其實現,那會更具威脅性。一旦法國人決定採取一項歐洲政策,他們很少會退縮不前。

So whoever wins in May there is trouble ahead in Brussels, Berlin and indeed London. The European Commission, with the possible exception of Michel Barnier, will not like the protectionist impulse. The Germans will strongly resist treaty revision, or any attempt to meddle with the ECB』s mandate. And there is nothing whatsoever in the programmes of any of the serious candidates to please the British. Plus ça change, as we say in England.

因此無論誰在5月份贏得大選,布魯塞爾、柏林、甚至倫敦方面都會面臨麻煩。歐盟委員會(European Commission)將不會喜歡這種保護主義衝動——可能米歇爾•巴尼耶(Michel Barnier)除外。德國將強烈抵制修改財政協議或者任何干預歐洲央行職權的企圖。而所有有分量的候選人的計劃,都不會讓英國人高興。正如我們在英國所說的那樣:「換湯不換藥」。

The writer is a professor at Sciences Po in Paris

本文作者是巴黎政治學院(Sciences-Po)教授

譯者/何黎

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