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17週年大視野精選
【高端限免】After the fall: the legacy of Boris Johnson
鮑里斯·強森之後,英國走向何方?

Britain』s next Conservative prime minister will operate in a landscape defined by a uniquely polarising leader | 英國下一任保守黨首相將在一個獨特的兩極分化領導人所定義的環境中工作。

There were moist eyes around the cabinet table on Thursday as Boris Johnson began his long goodbye from British politics. “There were a few of them wiping away tears,” says one member of Johnson’s hastily assembled team. “Pathetic really. I wasn’t crying.”
週四,當鮑里斯•強森(Boris Johnson)開始告別英國政壇時,內閣會議桌周圍的人都熱淚盈眶。「有幾個人在擦眼淚,」強森匆忙組建的團隊的一名成員說。「真的很可憐。我並沒有哭。」
Indeed beyond the loyalists clinging to the wreckage of Johnson’s broken government, there were few tears being shed among Conservative MPs after they drove out of office the man who led Britain out of the EU and who — according to his critics — dragged British politics into the mud.
事實上,除了堅守在強森殘破政府殘骸上的忠誠分子外,保守黨議員們幾乎沒有流下眼淚,因爲他們趕走了帶領英國脫離歐盟的強森,而且根據他的批評者的說法,他把英國政治拖入了泥潭。
After a series of scandals in which Johnson repeated the same dismal cycle of concealing the truth, retreating, then being found out, his party could take it no longer. “Enough is enough,” Sajid Javid told parliament the day after quitting as health secretary on Tuesday, a decision that triggered an avalanche of resignations which swept the prime minister away.
在一系列醜聞中,強森重複著掩蓋真相、退縮、然後被發現的悲慘循環,他的政黨再也無法忍受了。賽義德•賈維德(Sajid Javid)於週二辭去衛生部長一職,並在第二天向議會表示:「受夠了。」賈維德的這一決定引發了雪崩式的辭職,首相也因此下臺。
Johnson will remain in office, but not in power, until September, when the Conservative party elects a new leader to replace him. A lucrative career of speechmaking, journalism and book-writing lie ahead.
強森將繼續留任,但不掌權,直到9月,保守黨選出新的領導人來取代他。他的未來將進入一個有利可圖的演講、新聞和寫書的生涯。
In some global capitals there was relief. Joe Biden, US president, could not bring himself to mention Johnson’s name in a statement on the “special relationship” after the UK prime minister announced his resignation as Tory leader.
在全球一些國家的首都,人們鬆了一口氣。在英國首相宣佈辭去保守黨領袖職務後,美國總統拜登在一份關於「特殊關係」的聲明中沒有提及強森的名字。
Biden, who once called Johnson a “physical and emotional clone” of Donald Trump, was frustrated with the prime minister’s willingness to rip up his Brexit treaty with the EU — a decision, argue critics, that threatens to destabilise Northern Ireland’s Good Friday peace agreement.
拜登曾稱強森是唐納•川普(Donald Trump)的「身體和情感克隆」,他對首相撕毀他與歐盟的脫歐條約感到失望——批評者認爲,這一決定可能會破壞北愛爾蘭的耶穌受難日和平協議。
“I won’t miss him,” said Bruno Le Maire, French finance minister, on Friday, echoing similar sentiments across the EU. “It proves that Brexit mixed up with populism does not make for a good cocktail for a nation.”
法國財政部長布魯諾•勒梅爾(Bruno Le Maire)上週五表示:「我不會想念他。」歐盟各國也表達了類似的情緒。「這證明,英國脫歐和民粹主義混在一起,對一個國家來說不是一杯好雞尾酒。」
James Cleverly, the new education secretary and a Johnson loyalist, says the comparison with Trump clinging on to power is ludicrous. “We are not America,” he says. Yet some Conservative MPs did make the comparison, fearing Johnson could take Britain to a dark place.
強森的忠實支持者、新任教育大臣詹姆斯•克萊弗利(James Cleverly)表示,將其與川普緊握權力不放相提並論是荒謬的。「我們不是美國,」他說。然而,一些保守黨議員確實做了比較,他們擔心強森會把英國帶向黑暗。
The 58-year-old leader had jokingly compared his determination to cling to office to that of the Japanese soldier Hiroo Onoda, who hid in the jungle for years and refused to accept Japan’s surrender after the second world war, but others did not see the funny side.
這位58歲的領導人曾開玩笑地將自己堅持執政的決心比作二戰後躲在叢林中多年、拒絕接受日本投降的日本軍人小野田寬郎(Hiroo Onoda),但其他人並不認爲這有什麼好笑的地方。
The UK prime minister had claimed he had a direct “mandate” from the British voters — MPs had to remind him that Britain is a parliamentary democracy, not a presidential system. Briefings by some of his allies that Tory MPs would have to “dip their hands in blood” to remove him evoked shudders.
英國首相曾聲稱他有來自英國選民的直接「授權」--議員們不得不提醒他,英國是一個議會民主制,而不是總統制。他的一些盟友通報說,保守黨議員將不得不「把手浸在鮮血中」才能讓他下臺,這讓人不寒而慄。
In the end Johnson went quietly. There was no angry mob, just a small band of diehard loyalists applauding him in Downing Street as he announced his resignation. Johnson blamed everybody else for his misfortune — accepting no personal responsibility — then turned on his heels and disappeared behind the famous black door.
最後,強森安靜地離開了。沒有憤怒的暴民,只有一小羣鐵桿支持者在他宣佈辭職時在唐寧街爲他鼓掌。強森把自己的不幸歸咎於其他人——沒有承擔任何個人責任——然後轉身離開,消失在那扇著名的黑門後面。
Most of the political obituaries agreed that Johnson, and his style of government, were unique in British politics. Indeed none of the contenders to replace him have anything like the flair, charisma or devilry that made him such a compelling leader.
大多數政治訃告都認爲,強森和他的政府風格在英國政治中是獨一無二的。的確,取代他的競爭者中沒有一個人具有使他成爲如此引人注目的領導人的天賦、魅力或魔鬼般的氣質。
But his departure raises questions about Johnson’s political legacy and whether — whoever inherits his crown — the next Conservative prime minister will be operating in a landscape defined by the leader known by allies as “Big Dog”.
但是,他的離開引發了對強森政治遺產的質疑,以及無論誰繼承他的王位,下一任保守黨首相是否會在一個由被盟友稱爲「大狗」的領導人定義的環境中運作。

Tax cuts vs public spending

減稅與公共開支

Few doubt that Johnson will go down in British history as a highly consequential prime minister: the leader who spearheaded the campaign to rip Britain out of the EU in 2016 and then — against significant opposition — delivered on his promise to “get Brexit done”.
幾乎沒有人懷疑,強森將作爲一位影響深遠的首相載入英國歷史:這位領導人在2016年帶頭推動英國退出歐盟,然後——不顧重大反對——兌現了「完成脫歐」的承諾。
His 2019 general election victory delivered a Conservative majority of 80 — the biggest since the 1980s heyday of Margaret Thatcher — extending the party’s reach into constituencies that had never previously voted Tory.
他在2019年的大選中獲勝,使保守黨獲得了80票的多數席位,這是自瑪格麗特·撒切爾(Margaret Thatcher)上世紀80年代全盛時期以來最大的一次,使該黨的勢力範圍擴大到先前從未投票支持保守黨的選區。
“He demonstrated that there is an electoral market for Conservatives in former industrial seats in the north, midlands and north Wales that the party had almost given up on,” says David Lidington, former de facto deputy prime minister to Johnson’s predecessor Theresa May.
「他證明,保守黨在北部、中部和北威爾士的前工業席位存在一個選舉市場,該黨幾乎放棄了這些席位,」強森前任德蕾莎·梅伊(Theresa May)事實上的副首相戴維•利丁頓(David Lidington)表示。
Although Johnson arguably had an easy task in defeating the unelectable leftwing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in 2019, his achievements will define the political landscape for his successor.
儘管強森在2019年擊敗不可能當選的左翼工黨領袖傑里米·科爾賓(Jeremy Corbyn)可以說是一件輕而易舉的事情,但他的成就將決定他的繼任者的政治前景。
Brexit was the issue that helped the Tories make headway in the so-called red wall constituencies in working class parts of the north of England — the Labour party’s traditional heartland — and it is now accepted by all mainstream UK parties that there is no way back for Britain, at least not for the foreseeable future, when it comes to EU membership.
英國脫歐是幫助保守黨在英格蘭北部工人階級地區的所謂紅牆選區--工黨的傳統中心地帶--取得進展的問題,現在英國所有主流政黨都接受,在歐盟成員資格問題上,英國沒有任何退路,至少在可預見的未來沒有。
Even Sir Keir Starmer, Labour leader, this week announced that if he wins the next election he will not try to take Britain back into the EU single market or customs union and there would be no return of freedom of movement.
就連工黨領袖基爾•斯塔默爵士(Sir Keir Starmer)本週也宣佈,如果他在下次選舉中獲勝,他將不會試圖讓英國重新回到歐盟單一市場或關稅聯盟,而且行動自由也將不復存在。
Starmer describes his approach as “making Brexit work” and that will be the task facing whichever Conservative politician succeeds Johnson as prime minister. Leaders in European capitals — and Biden in Washington — are hoping to see a more constructive approach.
斯塔默將他的做法描述爲「使英國脫歐成功」,這將是無論哪位保守黨政治家接替強森擔任首相所面臨的任務。歐洲各國首都的領導人--以及華盛頓的拜登--都希望看到一種更具建設性的方法。
Johnson has embedded Brexit — regarded as recently as 2015 by most mainstream politicians as a cranky obsession of Nigel Farage’s UK Independence party — as national policy, in spite of accumulating evidence of the economic damage it is causing.
儘管有越來越多的證據表明英國脫歐正在造成經濟損失,但強森還是將英國脫歐作爲國家政策。直至2015年,英國脫歐還被大多數主流政治家視爲奈傑爾·法拉奇(Nigel Farage)的英國獨立黨的一個古怪的執念。
Tory candidates for the leadership will have to talk tough on Europe, but some of the frontrunners — including former chancellor Rishi Sunak and foreign affairs committee chair Tom Tugendhat — are likely to seek better relations with Brussels, with a view to softening the economic harm of Brexit and resolving the Northern Ireland stand-off.
保守黨領導人候選人將不得不在歐洲問題上發表強硬言論,但一些領先者——包括前財政大臣裏希•蘇納克(Rishi Sunak)和外交事務委員會主席湯姆·圖根達特(Tom Tugendhat)——可能會尋求與布魯塞爾改善關係,以緩解英國退歐對經濟的傷害,並解決北愛爾蘭僵局。
Paul Goodman, former Tory MP and editor of the ConservativeHome website, says that rightwing leadership contenders could promise to complete the Brexit project by using newfound regulatory freedoms to deliver a “Singapore Brexit” — of low taxes and light regulation — while striking tough poses on the NI protocol.
前保守黨議員、保守黨之家(ConservativeHome)網站編輯保羅•古德曼(Paul Goodman)表示,右翼領導人競選人可以承諾,透過利用新獲得的監管自由,實現「新加坡式的脫歐」(即低稅收、寬鬆監管),同時對北愛協議擺出強硬姿態,從而完成脫歐計劃。
At the same time, Johnson’s success at using Brexit to open up the north of England to the Tories has created new economic facts on the ground for whoever becomes the next Conservative prime minister. First time Tory voters in 2019 are expecting to see some return on their political investment and many are still waiting.
與此同時,強森成功地利用英國退歐向保守黨敞開了英格蘭北部的大門,這爲無論誰成爲下一任保守黨首相都創造了新的經濟現實。2019年保守黨選民首次投票,他們期待看到政治投資的一些回報,許多人仍在等待。
The next Tory prime minister will need to hold on to working class northern towns — the seat of Wakefield was retaken by Labour at a by-election in June that spooked Conservative MPs — if they are to retain power after the next election, expected in 2024. That means maintaining high levels of public spending to achieve Johnson’s “levelling up” agenda.
如果保守黨想要在預計2024年的下次選舉後繼續掌權,下一任保守黨首相將需要保住北部的工人階級城鎮——在6月份的一次補選中,工黨重新奪回了韋克菲爾德的席位,這讓保守黨議員感到不安。這意味著要維持高水準的公共支出,以實現強森的「城鎮升級」議程。
This new political map poses a problem for wannabe leaders. To win the leadership, they have to woo a Tory electorate of around 100,000 party members who are often old, southern-based and well-off. But to hold on to national power they will have to appeal to those northern towns that Johnson promised so much to. Above all, Tory members and the Conservative-supporting parts of the media want tax cuts.
這種新的政治版圖給想成爲領導人的人帶來了一個問題。爲了贏得領導權,他們必須贏得約10萬保守黨選民的支持,這些選民大多是居住在南方、生活富裕的老年人。但要保住國家權力,他們就必須吸引那些北部城鎮,強森曾承諾要吸引這些城鎮。最重要的是,保守黨成員和支持保守黨的部分媒體希望減稅。
As chancellor, Sunak recognised the simple mathematical problem of delivering high public spending and lower taxes, especially at a time of high inflation and as the country counts the economic and personal cost of the coronavirus pandemic. He argued that lower taxes should be paid for by higher growth and spending cuts. Jacob Rees-Mogg, a Johnson loyalist in parliament, claimed this week that Sunak’s willingness to put up taxes to balance the books made him a “much lamented socialist chancellor”.
作爲財政大臣,蘇納克認識到高公共支出和低稅收這一簡單的數學問題,尤其是在高通膨時期,在該國計算新冠疫情的經濟和個人成本之際。他認爲,低稅收應該由更高的成長和削減開支來支付。強森在議會中的忠實支持者雅各布•里斯-莫格(Jacob Rees-Mogg)本週聲稱,蘇納克願意透過增加稅收來平衡收支,這使他成爲「令人遺憾的社會主義財政大臣」。
Johnson was about to over-rule his chancellor by offering aggressive tax cuts, probably funded by borrowing, insisting this is the way to boost growth. But Sunak quit in protest, just minutes after Javid, fearing Johnson’s short-term survival strategy risked throwing petrol on the inflationary fire.
強森打算否決他的財政大臣,提出激進的減稅方案,並堅稱這是提振成長的途徑,減稅資金可能來自借款。但就在賈維德辭職幾分鐘後,蘇納克辭職以示抗議,他擔心強森的短期生存策略可能會給通膨火上澆油。
Goodman believes the economic debate in the Tory leadership will be between those, like Sunak, who favour tax cuts funded by spending cuts, and those who want tax cuts funded by borrowing.
古德曼認爲,保守黨領導層的經濟辯論將在像蘇納克這樣,支持透過削減開支來支持減稅的人,與希望透過借貸來支持減稅的人之間展開。
A third Johnson legacy is likely to be an ongoing commitment to relatively high levels of defence spending. The prime minister’s decisive response to the Ukraine crisis, including immediately arming Kyiv, has earned him rare credit abroad. Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday called him “a hero”.
強森留下的第三個遺產可能是對相對較高水準的國防開支的持續承諾。首相對烏克蘭危機的果斷反應,包括立即向基輔提供武器,爲他在國外贏得了罕見的聲譽。週四,弗拉基米爾·澤倫斯基(Volodymyr Zelensky)稱他爲「英雄」。
Just days before his resignation Johnson urged Nato countries to honour their commitment to spend a minimum of 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence; Britain has long exceeded that target. Johnson has demonstrated that in a post-Brexit world, the UK can leverage its relative military heft to gain foreign policy advantage.
就在他辭職的前幾天,強森敦促北約國家履行承諾,將至少2%的國內生產總值用於國防;英國早已超過了這一目標。強森已經證明,在英國脫歐後的世界裏,英國可以利用其相對的軍事力量來獲得外交政策的優勢。

‘It’s never his fault’

「這從來都不是他的錯」

In his resignation speech, Johnson said he was “proud” of his achievements, including delivering Brexit, rolling out an effective Covid-19 vaccine programme and standing up for Ukraine. But his domestic policy agenda — including economic policy — often seemed incoherent. His day-to-day management was shambolic.
強森在辭職演講中表示,他對自己取得的成就感到「自豪」,包括實現英國退歐、推出有效的新冠疫苗計劃以及支持烏克蘭。但他的國內政策議程(包括經濟政策)往往顯得不連貫。他的日常管理混亂不堪。
“He will go down as a significant prime minister, but not seen as good for the country,” says Lidington. “He was never any good at actually governing.” Goodman compares Johnson to a “Turkish sultan or a Tudor monarch”, ruling by whim, constantly changing his mind, with no clear strategic direction.
「他將作爲一位重要的首相而被載入史冊,但不被視爲對國家有益,」利丁頓說。「他從來都不擅長真正的治理。」 古德曼把強森比作一個「土耳其蘇丹或都鐸王朝的君主」,靠一時興起來統治,不斷改變主意,沒有明確的戰略方向。
The departure of his controversial adviser Dominic Cummings in 2020 stripped Johnson of one of the few people in his inner circle to provide any strategic policy grip; crisis management was often the principal preoccupation of those in Downing Street in recent times.
2020年,他備受爭議的顧問多米尼克·卡明斯(Dominic Cummings)的離職,讓強森失去了核心圈子中爲數不多的能夠掌控戰略政策的人之一;最近一段時間,危機管理往往是唐寧街官員的主要關注點。
Johnson performed numerous “resets” of his Downing Street operation, but none of them corrected the fundamental flaw: the prime minister himself. Johnson, once sacked as a Times journalist for making up a quote, at times seemed to have only a passing acquaintance with the truth.
強森對他在唐寧街的運作進行了多次「重置」,但沒有一次能糾正根本的缺陷:首相本人。強森曾經因爲編造一句話而被《泰晤士報》的記者解僱,有時他似乎對真相只是一知半解。
In the wake of the partygate affair, which saw Johnson attempting to cover up the existence of parties in Number 10 during Covid lockdowns, the prime minister insisted in May that “the entire senior management has changed”. Opposition Labour MPs laughed. At the time Johnson — who was fined for breaking the law over these parties — admitted that he would never undergo a “psychological transformation” and it was this crucial fact that ultimately led to his downfall this week. Tory MPs realised that he would never change.
「排隊門」事件發生後,強森試圖在新冠疫情封鎖期間掩蓋唐寧街10號開過排隊的事實,首相在5月堅稱「整個高級管理層已經改變」。反對黨工黨議員笑了。當時,因在這些聚會上違法而被罰款的強森承認,他永遠不會經歷「心理轉變」,這一關鍵事實最終導致了他本週的下臺。保守黨議員意識到他永遠不會改變。
The final scandal to topple Johnson centred on an incident last week in which a senior Conservative party politician — the deputy chief whip, Chris Pincher — drunkenly groped two men at a private members’ club. Pincher resigned but Johnson faced questions about why he had appointed him in the first place.
推翻強森的最後一樁醜聞集中在上週發生的事件上:一名保守黨高級政客——保守黨副黨鞭克里斯•平徹(Chris Pincher)——在一傢俬人會員俱樂部醉酒後猥褻兩名男子。平徹辭職了,但是強森面臨著爲什麼他一開始會任命他的問題。
As with partygate, Johnson’s first instinct was to conceal the truth, telling his official spokesman and cabinet ministers to trot out the line that he was unaware of previous “specific allegations” that Pincher was involved in sexual misconduct.
與「派對門」一樣,強森的第一反應是隱瞞真相,告訴他的官方發言人和內閣部長們,他不知道先前關於平徹涉及不當性行爲的「具體指控」。
It was not true and Johnson’s lies — predictably — were soon exposed. In a decisive intervention on Wednesday, the former top civil servant at the Foreign Office, Lord Simon McDonald, revealed that Pincher had been investigated after a similar incident in 2019 while he was a minister in the department. The complaint had been upheld and prime minister Johnson had been briefed, in person.
這不是真的,強森的謊言——可以預見——很快就被揭穿了。在週三的一次決定性干預中,前外交部高級公務員西蒙•麥克唐納勳爵(Lord Simon McDonald)透露,平徹在2019年擔任外交部大臣時曾發生過類似事件,之後他受到了調查。該申訴得到了支持,強森首相本人也得到了通報。
The revelation prompted an outpouring of Tory frustration and anger with the leader, and more than 50 government resignations. Javid said that ministers were fed up with being asked to lie on Johnson’s behalf, adding in a letter to the prime minister that “the values you represent reflect on your colleagues, your party and ultimately your country”.
這一消息的披露引發了保守黨對這位領導人的不滿和憤怒,並導致50多名政府官員辭職。賈維德表示,部長們已經受夠了被要求爲強森撒謊。他在給首相的一封信中補充說,「你所代表的價值觀反映了你的同事、你的政黨,最終也反映了你的國家。」
Johnson retreated to his bunker, scorning efforts by once-loyal cabinet ministers on Wednesday night to persuade him to resign with some dignity. Instead the prime minister’s final hours with full executive authority were spent exacting revenge.
週三晚上,曾經忠心耿耿的內閣部長們試圖說服強森體面地辭職,強森對此不屑一顧,退回到自己的掩體中。相反,首相擁有完全行政權力的最後幾個小時被用來進行嚴厲的報復。
Michael Gove, who jointly led the Brexit campaign with Johnson in 2016, was sacked at 9pm for his alleged treachery after he privately advised the prime minister to quit. Gove, the levelling-up secretary, who had betrayed Johnson when he made his first bid for the Conservative party leadership in 2016, was branded “a snake” by the prime minister’s allies.
2016年與強森共同領導英國退歐運動的邁克爾•戈夫(Michael Gove),在私下建議首相辭職後,因涉嫌背叛,於晚上9點被解僱。正在逐步晉升的大臣戈夫在2016年首次競選保守黨領袖時背叛了強森,被首相的盟友稱爲「一條蛇」。
“Revenge is a dish best served cold,” says one friend of Johnson. “That was done out of pure pleasure — final revenge for what he did in 2016.”
「君子報仇,十年不晚,」強森的一位朋友說。「那是出於純粹的快樂--對他在2016年所做的事進行最後的報復。」
By that stage Johnson was struggling to find people to fill the ever-increasing number of ministerial vacancies. He slept on the issue and at 6am on Thursday he began drafting his resignation speech.
到了那個階段,強森正在努力尋找人員來填補不斷增加的部長職位空缺。他想著這個問題睡了一覺,週四早上6點,他開始起草他的辭職演講。
He used it to blame Conservative MPs for making the “eccentric” decision to get rid of him, claiming he had been trampled underfoot by a “herd” of panicking colleagues. “He’s clearly very angry because it’s never his fault,” says one former cabinet minister.
他藉此指責保守黨議員做出了讓他下臺的「古怪」決定,聲稱他被一羣驚慌失措的同僚踩在腳下。一位前內閣大臣表示:「他顯然非常憤怒,因爲這從來都不是他的錯。」
Johnson’s resignation was greeted with huge relief among his colleagues. “Thank God,” said one cabinet minister, as the prime minister signalled the end of his turbulent three-year reign.
強森的辭職讓他的同事們如釋重負。「感謝上帝,」一位內閣大臣說道,此時首相終於表態,他三年的動盪統治即將結束。
McDonald, ousted by Johnson from the Foreign Office for his supposedly anti-Brexit views in 2020, on Thursday evening tweeted a picture of a glorious summer sunset over the gothic towers of Westminster with the simple words: “It was a good day.”
麥克唐納在2020年因所謂的反英國退歐觀點而被強森從外交部趕下臺。週四晚上,他在Twitter上發佈了一張照片,照片上是威斯敏斯特哥特式塔樓上燦爛的夏日夕陽,上面寫著簡單的文字:「這是美好的一天。」
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