How Similar are Rural Maine and Rural China? | 美國與中國的鄉村振興計劃有什麼共通之處? - FT中文網
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雙語閱讀

How Similar are Rural Maine and Rural China?
美國與中國的鄉村振興計劃有什麼共通之處?

long lead
常年在華工作的筆者近期回到美國旅行,在自己的家鄉緬因州深切感覺到中國農村和緬因州農村在經濟和人口問題上面臨類似的艱難處境。
This is not really an essay about China. Mostly not, anyway. Over the last month, I’ve been back in the United States traveling. While this trip has taken me to New York, New Hampshire, and Georgia, I spent most of my time in my home state of Maine. There, I was struck by the parallels between the economic and demographic struggles of rural China and rural Maine. While both regions face challenges that are similar in many ways, they face these challenges with approaches reflective of their [different] respective political cultures.
前言:這並不是一篇關於中國的文章。至少大部分內容與中國無關。上個月,我回到美國旅行。這次旅行我去了紐約州、新罕布什爾州和喬治亞州,但我大部分時間都呆在我的家鄉緬因州。在那裏,我深切感覺到中國農村和緬因州農村在經濟和人口問題上面臨的類似的艱難處境。雖然這兩個地區在許多方面面臨著相似的挑戰,但它們應對這些挑戰的方法反映了各自不同的政治文化。
I have mentioned before that my interest in China’s rural economic development is motivated by its connection to my own life. I want to see China’s experiments with rural rejuvenation succeed, not just for aesthetic enjoyment, and the benefit it has for the citizens affected, but for their practical case study value.
我之前提到過,我對中國農村經濟發展的興趣是因爲它與我自己的生活息息相關。我希望看到中國振興鄉村的實驗取得成功,這不僅是出於美學價值,也不光因爲它爲相關的中國百姓帶來福祉,而且還因爲它們有現實的案例研究價值。
With that background in mine, I have decided to try writing about Maine. To help make it a little more insightful than just me and my personal observations, I also interviewed around ten people for this piece, including the current President of the Maine State Senate.
在這樣的背景下,我決定試著寫寫我的家鄉緬因州的故事。爲了讓這篇文章超越我個人的觀察和感受,我還採訪了大約十個人,包括緬因州參議院的現任主席。
Chapter 1: Keep Going North Until You Hit Canada
第一章:向北直達加拿大
Maine is as far north and east as you can go in the USA without stumbling into Canada. We are a rural state, a sparsely-populated one, and one of the poorer states in the country (44th smallest economy and 40th lowest GDP/capita. We are generally known for lobsters and Acadia National Park and Stephen King novels and that’s it.
緬因州位於美國的最東北角,距離加拿大隻有一步之遙。它是一個農業州,一個人口稀少的州,也是全美國最貧窮的州之一(經濟規模第44位,人均GDP第40位)。緬因州通常以龍蝦、阿卡迪亞國家公園和斯蒂芬•金的小說而聞名,僅此而已。
I come from the even more sparsely-populated northern part of the state, in Aroostook County. There are currently only 67,000 people in Aroostook, so don’t be too surprised if you’ve never met one of us out in the wild. In Aroostook, we drive pick-up trucks with hunting rifles in the gun rack, listen to country music, and inject a remarkable number of Québécois French phrases into our heavily-accented English (a patois which I lost as soon as I went to college, but inevitably pops out when I return).
我來自該州北部人口更爲稀少的阿魯斯土克縣(Aroostook County))。目前,阿魯斯土克只有6.7萬人口,所以如果你從未遇到過我們縣的人,也不要太驚訝。在阿魯斯土克,我們開著皮卡車,槍架上放著獵槍,聽著鄉村音樂,在我們口音濃重的英語中加入了數量驚人的魁北克法語短語(這是我一上大學就丟掉的鄉音,但當我回鄉時,仍不可避免地會蹦出來)。
The “Crown of Maine”, Aroostook is a geographically large county, but has just two “cities,” Caribou and Presque Isle. Maine is a 7-hour drive from tip to tip. Image: etravelmaine.com
被稱爲「緬因州之冠」的阿魯斯土克是一個地理上很大的縣,但只有兩個「城市」,卡里布(Caribou)和普雷斯克島(Presque Isle)。開車從緬因州一端到另外一端需要7個小時。
Maine has the lowest violent crime rate in the nation and one of the lowest rates of property crime. We never lock our homes or our cars. Hell, we usually leave our cars running with keys in the ignition in the parking lot in the winter so the heat stays on. Jeezum rice, it’s cold up here! Who could steal a car anyway? Everyone already knows what everyone drives. You’d never get away with it.
緬因州是全美國暴力犯罪率最低的州,也是財產犯罪率最低的州之一。我們從不鎖我們的家門或我們的車。我們通常在冬天把車停在停車場,鑰匙插在點火開關上,這樣就能保持暖氣。天啊,這裏好冷!誰會偷車呢?每個人都知道自己開什麼車。你逃不掉的。
My hometown is Fort Kent, population: 3800. This is the northern endpoint of US Route 1 (the southern terminus is in Key West, Florida).
我的家鄉是肯特堡(Fort Kent),人口3800。這是美國1號公路的北部終點(南部終點在佛羅里達州的基韋斯特Key West)。
We have an international border crossing into New Brunswick, Canada. You’re equally likely to hear French or English spoken on the street. Your friends from southern Maine have heard of Fort Kent, but they have never been. They’ve always wanted to visit, but it’s just so far.
我們市與加拿大新不倫瑞克(New Brunswick)接壤。你在街上聽到說法語或英語的幾率是一樣的。你那些來自緬因州南部的朋友會說,他們聽說過肯特堡,但從未去過;他們一直想來遊玩,但實在太遠了。
In the 80s, Fort Kent had multiple bars, restaurants, and a downtown that might be described as lively - rowdy even, on the weekends. Then, the local forestry industry dried up. Now, it’s a town that’s been treading water and barely keeping its head dry for three decades. Very little changes. The population slowly trickles down. New restaurants open, then close again. This year, just 62 students graduated from the high school.
1980年代,肯特堡有多家酒吧、餐館,而且在週末,市中心可以說是熱鬧的——甚至是喧鬧的。然後,當地的伐木產業枯竭了。這個小鎮在過去三十年裏一直在原地踏步,勉強維生。變化很小。人口慢慢地遞減。新餐館開張,然後又關門。今年,只有62名學生從這裏的高中畢業。
We don’t have much of an economy to speak of up here. Historically, it was dominated by the production of forestry products and small-scale agriculture, with a bit of light manufacturing. While harvesting of wood and production of paper/forestry products is an important industry in Aroostook County, and a provider of well-paid blue-collar jobs, it is now struggling, due to cheaper international competition, reduction of paper use in a digitized world, and lack of workers.
我們這裏沒有什麼經濟可言。歷史上,它主要有林業產品生產和小規模農業,還有一點輕工業。雖然木材採伐和造紙/林產品生產是阿魯斯土克縣的一個重要產業,提供了高薪的藍領工作,但由於國際競爭者成本更低,數位化世界用紙減少,以及缺乏工人,該行業目前正陷入困境。
In 1970, the paper industry employed a quarter of Maine’s total workforce. Today, production of paper products, wood products, and timber harvesting together employ fewer than 15,000 people statewide. The single largest employment sector in Aroostook is healthcare and health services, which is bound to keep growing as our population ages. The poverty rate in Aroostook is around 15% and likely closer to 20% or higher in Fort Kent. I don’t know if I’d go so far as to say the town is sick, but I wouldn’t say it’s healthy either.
1970年,造紙業僱傭了緬因州總勞動力的四分之一。如今,紙製品、木製品和木材採伐的生產在全州範圍內總共僱用了不到1.5萬人。阿魯斯土克最大的就業部門是醫療保健和醫療服務。隨著人口老齡化,這一行業勢必會持續成長。阿魯斯土克縣的貧困率約爲15%,肯特堡的貧困率可能接近20%或更高。我不知道我是否會描述這個小鎮爲「重疾纏身」,但我也不會說它是健康的。
As for the other industries from history, small-scale farming is rapidly disappearing too, while the light manufacturing is all but gone (mirroring its general decline in the US). Tourism has arisen as a new third-place contributor to GDP (behind wood harvesting/processing and agriculture) but still faces many challenges. I’ll talk more about tourism in Part 2 later. But for now, just know that our economy is…not great.
至於其他傳統行業,以及小規模農業也在迅速消失,而輕工製造業也幾乎消失了(這反映了美國輕工製造業的普遍衰落)。旅遊業已成爲GDP的第三大貢獻者(僅次於木材採伐加工和農業),但仍面臨許多挑戰。我將在後面的第二部分中更多地討論旅遊業。現在,我們只需要知道:我們縣的經濟並不好。
Chapter 2: Where Have All the Workers Gone?
第二章:所有的工人都去哪兒了?
Most of the country has a labor shortage right now. But for Maine, shortage is an insufficiently urgent word…it’s already a full-blown crisis, especially up in Aroostook.
現在這個國家的大部分地區都存在勞動力短缺的問題。但對緬因州來說,短缺這個詞還不夠緊迫,它已經是一場全面的危機,尤其是在阿魯斯土克。
Near my home is a gas station/convenience store owned by one of my teachers from elementary school. He told me after 15 years of running the place, he and his wife are going to put the place up for sale at the end of this year. This is not because business is bad, but because they’re exhausted. Even with the minimum wage set at $15/hour in Maine, they can’t find someone to work the cash register. They’re simply burnt out from working at the store 7 days a week, during what are supposed to be their retirement years. I hope the next owners are up for the task…(if they can find a buyer).
我家附近有一家加油站/便利店,是我當年小學的一位老師開的。他告訴我,在經營了15年之後,他和他的妻子打算在今年年底把店出售。這不是因爲生意不好,而是因爲他們實在幹不動了。即使以緬因州的最低工資每小時15美元(在全美各州最低工資中處於較高水準——編者住),他們也找不到收銀員。他們只是因爲一週7天在店裏工作而精疲力竭,而這段時間本該是他們的退休歲月。我希望下一任房主願意承擔這個任務——如果他們能找到買家接盤的話。
Aroostook’s population has been declining steadily for decades. Just like in China, young people of working age have few reasons to stick around the countryside, and increasingly choose to leave the area. While it’s not as extreme as what you’ll see in some Chinese towns, (which sometimes have literally nothing but elderly people and small children) we certainly seem to be trending in that direction.
幾十年來,阿魯斯土克的人口一直在穩步下降。就像在中國一樣,勞動年齡的年輕人很少有理由留在農村,越來越多的人選擇離開這個地區。雖然這不像你在中國的一些城鎮看到的那樣極端(這些城鎮有時實際上只有老人和小孩),但我們似乎肯定朝著這個方向發展。
While the factors contributing to Maine’s sluggish economic performance are of course more complex than just labor shortages, the lack of workers is certainly one thing that everyone can agree on as being a huge problem. Entry-level workers, skilled workers, professional workers, it’s all the same. There are not enough people to fill jobs in Maine. The “Help Wanted” signs in storefronts across the state in everywhere from fast food to vehicle service centers are as ubiquitous as flannel shirts and orange hunting caps.
導致緬因州經濟低迷的因素當然不止勞動力短缺這麼簡單,但工人短缺肯定是公認的一個巨大問題。初級工人,技術工人,專業工人,都是一樣的。緬因州沒有足夠的人來填補工作崗位。從速食店到汽車服務中心,全州各地的店面都張貼著「招聘」的標語,就像法蘭絨襯衫和橙色狩獵帽一樣無處不在。
A look at the growth trend of Maine’s labor force for the past few decades tells the story clearly:
看看緬因州過去幾十年的勞動力成長趨勢就能清楚地說明問題:
Maine Department of Labor: Workforce Outlook 2012-2022
勞動力的萎縮在阿魯斯土克等農村地區尤爲明顯。這並不令人震驚,因爲幾十年來人口總數一直在減少。我們的社區正在逐漸消失。
The shrinkage in the labor force has been especially pronounced in rural areas like Aroostook. That’s not shocking, considering the population overall has been shrinking for decades. Our communities are just withering away.
我們的人口不僅在減少,而且也在變老。隨著文化規範的改變和撫養孩子的成本不斷上升,家庭要的孩子越來越少(緬因州到處都是對避孕過敏的天主教徒……他們過去都是大家庭)。
Not only is our population shrinking, but it’s also getting older. Families are having fewer children as cultural norms change and the cost of raising children keeps rising (Maine is full of Catholics allergic to contraception…those families used to be BIG).
與此同時,許多年輕人被吸引到州外更有吸引力的工作中去了。我想任何在中國農村旅行過的人都會看到這裏的相似之處。
Meanwhile, many young people are being siphoned away to more attractive careers downstate, or out of state. I think anyone who has spent time traveling in the Chinese countryside will see the similarities here.
在緬因州商會發布的《振興緬因州2022》白皮書中,500名緬因州僱主接受了關於他們對下一任緬因州州長的優先考慮的調查,其中46%的僱主選擇「初級勞動力的供給」作爲他們最關心的問題,與能源成本並駕齊驅。而我們正處在一場真正的能源危機之中。
Median age rising from 45 to 49 in just one decade
但情況變得更糟了。不僅是初級工人,「技術工人/技術工人的供給」和「專業工人供給」也是最優先考慮的問題,這兩個問題都影響到超過40%的受訪企業。這告訴我緬因州根本沒有足夠的人在任何級別工作。
In the Making Maine Work 2022 white paper published by the Maine State Chamber of Commerce, 500 Maine employers were surveyed on their priorities for the next Maine governor and the greatest percentage - 46% - selected “availability of entry-level workers” as their TOP concern, tied with energy costs. And that’s in the middle of an actual energy crisis.
除了導致企業倒閉之外,這還嚴重影響了阿魯斯土克縣招商的能力。即使有高薪、全年開放的公司想在這裏開店,他們也會很難招到人。想來這裏的公司必須非常有耐心,或者一開始就有很強的動機來到這裏。
But it gets even worse. Not just entry-level workers, but “availability of skilled/technical workers” and “availability of professional workers” were ALSO among the top priorities, both affecting more than 40% of the businesses surveyed. This tells me there simply aren’t enough people to work at any level in Maine.
最近,就有這樣一家潛在僱主來到了該地區,Valt Enterprinces,一家高科技航天和防務公司,希望利用附近城市普雷斯克島的小機場開發衛星發射系統。我認爲阿魯斯土克縣的低人口密度是一個很大的吸引力;任何發射失敗的碎片都不太可能落在任何人身上或任何有價值的東西上。
Besides contributing to business closures, this has a dire impact on Aroostook’s ability to attract employers. Even if companies with well-paid, year-round jobs want to set up shop here, they’re going to struggle to find people to hire. These companies would have be extremely patient, or have some very strong motivation to come here in the first place.
Valt是計劃成爲普雷斯克島航空航天研究園的第一個租戶。Valt計劃最終招聘130多名員工,包括工程師、研究科學家、機械師等。如果這真的發生了,它可能會成爲該地區的一個大僱主(和納稅大戶)。對於當地的經濟規劃者來說,看到阿魯斯土克直接從緬因州計劃中的新太空和航空航天工業中受益是令人興奮的。
Recently, such a potential employer arrived in the region, Valt Enterprizes, a high-tech space and defense company that wants to use the small airport in the nearby city of Presque Isle to develop launch systems for satellites. I imagine Aroostook’s low population density is a big point of attraction; falling debris from any failed launches are unlikely to land on anyone or anything of value.
但這樣的機會也同時凸顯了當地招商面臨的「雞和蛋」的矛盾:即使該地區有足夠的工人來填補這些職位,他們也需要特定的培訓和學位來填補這些職位。學生們只有在畢業後就業前景看好的情況下才會選擇特定的教育領域;但如果僱主很難相信他們能找到足夠多的人才,他們就很難把這個地區視爲有吸引力的業務所在地。在這種情況下,緬因州大學在普雷斯克島的分校沒有4年的工科課程,當地社區大學也沒有2年的機械加工課程。這些人才從何而來?
Valt is the first tenant of what is planned to become the Presque Isle Aerospace Research Park. Valt is looking to eventually hire over 130 people, including engineers, research scientists, machinists, etc. If this actually happens, it would likely become a major employer (and taxpayer) in the region. It’s exciting for local economic planners to see Aroostook directly benefitting from Maine’s intended new space and aerospace industry.
爲了解決這一問題,Valt被迫直接與當地學校合作,提供職業培訓,以填補他們的數控加工職位:
A job post from Valt’s LinkedIn page
與此同時,我估計需要工科學位的職位將要從外地招聘員工,甚至是州外,再把他們搬遷到普雷斯克島。不是每個僱主都願意找這麻煩。找到有意願做這事的僱主,對於打破「雞生蛋還是蛋生雞」的悖論至關重要,這就是爲什麼這裏的經濟規劃者對Valt如此興奮。但據我所知,我擔心他們將很難找到他們需要的人才。
But opportunities like this highlight a chicken and egg paradox that arises when trying to attract such an employer. Even if there are enough workers in the region to fill these jobs, they will require specific training and degrees to fill these positions. Students will only choose certain educational tracks when job prospects after graduation look promising, but employers will struggle to see this region as attractive to locate their business if they believe they can find enough talents to hire. In this case, the local branch of the University of Maine in Presque Isle doesn’t have a 4-year engineering program, nor does the local community college have a 2-year machining program. Where will these talents come from?
所有這些都讓人想起中國農村地區,那裏的情況可能更糟糕。例如,中國在保證農村學校師資方面都有很大的困難,這是一個嚴重而持續、並且目前還看不到結構性解決方案的問題。我擔心緬因州很快也會變成這樣。
To try to get around this, Valt has been forced to work with directly with local schools to provide job training just to fill their CNC machining positions:
第三章:誰負責修復社區經濟?
Screenshot is taken from a local news report
在這次旅行中,我在肯特堡發現了一家生意興隆的新店,一家名爲「紅魔烘焙」的咖啡店。不是過濾式滴濾咖啡,而是店主自己烘焙咖啡豆,製作精品濃縮咖啡——在這個大多數人一生都在快樂地喝著渾濁的滴濾咖啡的地方。
Meanwhile, I imagine the positions that need engineering degrees will require employees to be hired in from outside the county, or even outside the state, to be relocated to Presque Isle. Not every employer will be willing to go through such a process. Finding one that will is crucial to breaking out of this chicken/egg paradox, which is why economic planners up here are so excited about Valt. But based on what I’ve been hearing from everyone, I’m afraid they’re going to struggle to find the people they need.
他告訴我,他以前在軍隊服役時周遊世界,品嚐過高質量的咖啡,最終決定他的家鄉真正需要正宗的拿鐵,所以他做到了。在開店之前,他必須花時間學習烘焙和準備咖啡豆。爲了支付這些啓動成本,他向北緬因發展委員會(NMDC)申請了一筆小企業貸款,並拿到了貸款。
All of this is strongly reminiscent of rural regions in China, where the situation is probably even more dire. For instance, China has a great deal of trouble even securing teachers to work in rural areas, a serious and ongoing problem with no immediate structural fix in sight. I fear Maine will also be in such a state very soon.
我以前從未聽說過NMDC,但我瀏覽了他們的網站,意識到如果有人對阿魯斯土克縣的戰略經濟規劃有意見和想法,那一定是這些人。NDMC的總部設在緬因州的卡里布市,離肯特堡不遠。因此,我給他們打了個電話,和他們的經濟發展總監喬恩•格列佛(Jon Gulliver)安排了一次聊天採訪的機會。
Chapter 3: Who’s in Charge of Fixing This Stuff?
喬恩告訴我,NMDC是聯邦政府指定的非營利組織,爲緬因州北部的農村社區提供經濟發展服務。他們幫助城鎮進行經濟諮詢、市場行銷、旅遊開發、吸引僱主等。自1970年代以來,他們還運營一個貸款和社區贈款融資項目,就是他們資助了「紅魔烘焙」咖啡店。
On this trip, I found a new business in Fort Kent that seemed to be doing well, a coffee shop called the Red Devil Roast. Not filter-drip, but a guy roasting his own beans and making barista espresso drinks, in a part of the world where most people have been happy drinking sludgy drip coffee their whole lives.
他告訴我,在該地區小社區的經濟和戰略規劃問題上,NMDC爲該縣的大部分地區提供支援。雖然一些較大的城鎮和城市有自己的專門人員爲城鎮做戰略規劃,但大多數將利用NMDC的服務。NMDC可能是最有能力「拯救」阿魯斯土克社區的組織。
He told me he had previously traveled the world while in the military and sampled high-quality coffee, and eventually decided that what his hometown really needed was proper lattes…so he made it happen. Before opening his shop, he had to spend time learning to roast and prepare the beans. To cover those startup costs, he had applied for (and received) a small business loan from the Northern Maine Development Commission (NMDC).
我發現NMDC是一個會員制組織——本地社區每年要繳納會費才能使用它的服務。喬恩告訴我,會費只佔他們年度預算的很小一部分——大部分是透過聯邦撥款得來的。它把這些資源輸送給當地的企業主和潛在創業者。我也看出NMDC是屬於公私合營機構的身份了。
I had never heard of NMDC before, but I took a look at their website and realized that if anyone would have opinions and thoughts about the strategic economic planning of Aroostook County, it would be these guys. NDMC is headquartered in the city of Caribou, Maine, not far from Fort Kent. So, I gave them a call and set up an interview/chat session with their Director of Economic Development, Jon Gulliver.
NMDC的長期戰略目標之一是實現自給自足,不再那麼依賴聯邦撥款。他們的社區融資和貸款部門已經實現了這一點。該部門爲「紅魔烘焙」這樣的企業提供過橋融資,因爲這些企業處於起步階段,或者商業銀行不願意提供貸款。
Jon told me NMDC is a nonprofit designated by the federal government to provide economic development services to rural communities in Northern Maine. They help towns with economic consulting, marketing, tourism development, attracting employers, etc. Since the 70s, they have also had a lending and community grant finance program, which is what the Red Devil Roast had taken advantage of.
這讓我想起了中國的農村信用合作社,它由中國人民銀行設立,旨在爲農村地區提供小額信貸服務。但是,NMDC的其他角色似乎與我之前在中國遇到的任何機構都沒有明確的對應關係。
He told me that when it comes to economic and strategic planning for small communities in the area, NMDC covers and provides support for much of the county. While some of the larger towns and cities have their own dedicated person to do strategic planning for the town, most will piggyback on NMDC’s services. NMDC is probably the closest thing Aroostook has to an organization whose job it is to “save” our communities.
我向喬恩講述了我在中國農村旅行的經歷,以及「新農村計劃」下的一些舉措,包括基礎設施開發和旅遊/商業企業的成立,這些企業有望吸引年輕人來這些社區生活和工作。
I discovered NMDC is a membership organization - regional communities pay annual dues in order to use its services. Jon told me the dues only cover a very small portion of their annual budget though - most of it arrives via federal grants. As it shuttles these resources to local business owners and would-be entrepreneurs, NMDC’s public-private partnership identity becomes clearer to me.
「是的,這就是『你建了,他們就會來』的方法。」喬恩說。「一開始,我們還想制定一個計劃,讓我們的社區與外來人口一起發展。但現在我們只專注於努力留住本地現存人口。」
One of NMDC’s long-term strategic goals for itself is to become self-sufficient and not so reliant on federal grants for funding. This is something their community financing and loans division has already achieved. This division provides bridge financing for businesses like the Red Devil Roast that are too early-stage or too uncertain for commercial banks to be willing to provide loans.
喬恩告訴我,在新冠疫情的早期階段,阿魯斯土克的人口實際上出現了多年來的第一次成長,因爲城市裏的人湧回農村。然而,這種成長是短暫的,人口下降的長期趨勢在去年再現。《振興緬因州》白皮書還指出,許多新移民仍然爲州外僱主遠距工作,這對緩解勞動力危機幾乎沒有幫助。
For me, this is reminiscent of China’s Rural Credit Cooperatives, established by the People’s Bank of China to offer micro-finance services in rural areas. But, the rest of NMDC’s role doesn’t seem to have a really clear corollary to any institutions I’ve encountered before in China.
喬恩當然比我更瞭解阿魯斯土克縣的經濟發展細節,但我不禁覺得,僅僅把「不流失人員」當做目標,似乎有點低。在這種情況下,即使你成功了,你也只是原地踏步,沒有取得任何進展。我覺得應該有可能吸引新人來到本地,同時創造當地人留在這裏的理由,而不是非此即彼。但可能我只是太天真,沒有考慮到一堆複雜的問題。至少有一個像NMDC這樣的組織存在。至少有人在嘗試做些什麼,儘管所採取的方法與我在中國看到的非常不同。全美國各地的縣級行政區都有這樣的機構嗎?
Image source: China Daily
第四章:旅遊業怎麼樣?
I told Jon about my experiences traveling around the Chinese countryside, along with some of the initiatives put into place as part of the New Countryside program, including infrastructure development and creation of tourism/commercial enterprises that will hopefully entice young people to come to live and work in these communities.
北緬因發展委員會的喬恩•格列佛告訴我,除了招商外,NMDC在北緬因州工作的一個關鍵部分是幫助社區更好地定位,以服務旅遊業。儘管緬因州的旅遊業總體上蓬勃發展,去年的旅遊業收入達到了近80億美元,但我的家鄉阿魯斯土克縣只佔其中的一小部分——2%或3%。這些錢大部分都花在緬因州海岸,或者更南部內陸湖泊的戶外休閒活動上。但至少我們賺到了一點點。
“Yes, that’s the ‘if you build it, they will come’ approach” Jon said. “At the beginning, we also wanted to have a plan to grow our communities with people from outside. But now we’re just focused on trying to keep who we still have here”.
在阿魯斯土克,旅遊業基本上是一個三季的產業。我們在夏季有3-4個月的露營和釣魚時間,在冬季有3-4個月的雪地摩托、滑雪和冰上釣魚時間,在秋季有1-2個月的狩獵和賞葉時間,在春季有1-2個月的休息時間(在當地也被稱爲「泥季」,原因很明顯)。一篇當地新聞報導引用緬因州旅遊局數據稱,阿魯斯托克的旅遊收入在夏季是最強勁的,略勝其他季節。這讓我感到意外。
Jon told me that that during the early stages of the pandemic, Aroostook’s population actually grew for the first time in years, as people in cities bolted for the countryside. The gain was short-lived, however, and the long-term trend of population decline resumed again last year. The Making Maine Work white paper also pointed out that many of these new migrants still work remotely for out-of-state employers, which does little to alleviate the labor crisis.
同一篇新聞報導還揣測道,農業旅遊可能是阿魯斯土克潛在的未開發機會,應該投入更多資源發展這一部門。農業旅遊的概念是透過吸引遊客到農場或牧場消費,將農業與旅遊業聯繫起來。我認爲阿魯斯土克在這方面是完美的,但它需要一些企業家的信心飛躍,更多的是「如果我們建了它,他們就會來」的想法。這需要當地人調整他們對生計的態度。他們習慣爲了食物、出於實用性而種地,而不是爲了讓缺乏自然的城市居民獲得生態刺激而種地。但這是有回報的。
Obviously, Jon knows more about the details of Aroostook’s economic development than I do, but I can’t help but feel that setting an objective to “not lose people” is a bit of a low bar. In that scenario, even if you succeed, you’re just treading water, not making any forward progress. I feel it should be possible to attract new people into the region while simultaneously creating reasons for locals to stay here, instead of either/or. But possibly (even probably) I am just being naïve about a bunch of complexities I’ve not considered. At least an organization like NMDC exists. At least someone is trying to do something, although the approach taken is very different from what I’ve seen in China. Do organizations like this exist on a county level everywhere in the country?
作爲其鄉村振興運動的一部分,中國正在嘗試類似的做法。如果中國的方法奏效,幾年後它可能成爲一個很好的案例研究。但外界需要先了解它的運作機制,才能將中國振興鄉村模式作爲真正的成功典範。但這很有趣。
Chapter 4: What About Tourism?
除了新奇的農業旅遊,「常規的」體育和休閒旅遊呢?露營、釣魚、徒步旅行、打獵、雪鞋徒步、滑雪、雪地摩托……阿魯斯土克都有豐富的資源。擴展這些經典的旅遊景點能成爲拯救緬因州北部的解決方案嗎?
Besides lobbying to bring in employers, Jon Gulliver at the Northern Maine Development Commission told me that a key part of NMDC’s work in northern Maine is helping communities position themselves better for tourism. Although tourism is booming in Maine overall, reaching almost 8 billion USD in spending last year, my home of Aroostook County only sees a tiny fraction of that - just 2 or 3%. Most of those dollars go to the Maine coast, or outdoor recreation at inland lakes farther south. But we get a bit.
理論上是有可能的。但說實話,在這些方面,阿魯斯土克與本州其他地方相比並沒有真正的競爭優勢。當然,我們有美麗的湖泊、河流和森林,但坦白說,整個州都充滿了美麗的湖泊、河流和森林。當然,我們有友好的民衆,平和、安寧的生活方式,爲城市的繁忙喧囂提供了喘息空間,但緬因州大部分都是這樣的。
Tourism is basically a three-season affair in Aroostook. We get about 3-4 months of camping and fishing in the summer, 3-4 months of snowmobiling, skiing, and ice fishing in the winter, 1-2 months of hunting and leaf watching in the fall, and 1-2 months of downtime in the spring (also known as “mud season” locally, for reasons that should be obvious). According to a local news report citing the Maine State Office of Tourism, Aroostook’s tourism revenue is strongest (by a small margin) in the summer (a surprise to me).
畢竟,本州中部和南部的露營或狩獵目的地要更容易到達,而且位於更大的社區,在當地節日、餐飲和購物方面爲遊客提供更多服務。儘管緬因州北部確實有一些獨特的當地節日和活動,但這裏的餐飲和購物選擇可能會少很多——請記住,由於我在第一部分中討論的勞動力短缺,我們幾乎無法保持餐館的營業!
The same news report went on to speculate that agri-tourism could be a potentially untapped opportunity for Aroostook, and that more resources should be put into developing this sector. The concept of agri-tourism focuses on connecting farming/ agriculture with tourism, by bringing visitors to a farm or ranch to spend money. I think Aroostook is perfect for this, but it will require a leap of faith from some entrepreneurial minds with more of that “if we build it, they will come” thinking. It would take an adjustment to how locals see themselves and their livelihoods…they are accustomed to farming for food…farming out of practicality…not farming so that nature-starved urbanites can get eco-titillated. But it pays.
在參觀NMDC之前,我在普雷斯克島的阿魯斯土克中心購物中心停留了一下。普雷斯克島有8800人口,是阿魯斯土克縣最大的城市(儘管自1990年以來其人口下降了15%以上)。參觀購物中心時,我震驚於它是如此的空曠——這是一個幽靈般的購物中心,就像你在中國看到的那樣。關鍵的區別在於,緬因州的幽靈基礎設施是「後人流時代」的,而中國的是「前人流時代」的。
Mississippi agritourism. Image is from farmflavor.com
我記得我小時候去購物中心的時候,美食街太繁忙了,你得拿著你的托盤在那裏轉悠10分鐘,才能等到一個座位空出來。現在,整個商場只有不到五家店在營業,美食廣場只剩下一家孤零零的餐廳,還是一家中餐館。
China’s trying something very similar right now as part of its Rural Rejuvenation campaign. If China’s approach works well, it could become a great case study in a few years. Until we see how it works, it can’t really serve as a model of success yet. But it is interesting.
這家中餐館的老闆叫溫妮,來自香港,曾在舊金山生活。她告訴我,她站在收銀臺後面,看著所有的鄰居店面一家家關張,離她的店越來越近。購物中心的人流量在這些年裏越來越少。但是忠實顧客仍舊給她帶來生意,他們來購物中心只是爲了來她這裏取外賣。她的餐廳是黑暗的美食廣場上唯一的燈光。
Besides newfangled agri-tourism, what about “regular” sport and recreational tourism? Camping, fishing, hiking, hunting, snowshoeing, skiing, snowmobiling…Aroostook has great resources for all of that. Could expansion of these classic tourism draws be the solution that saves northern Maine?
我問溫妮,如果商場關門,她是否會考慮在商場外開一家獨立餐廳。她說:「不,我不會。我累了。我女兒不想在這裏工作。她在香港學習。等這個商場關門了,我也關門大吉。」
It’s possible…in theory. But to be honest, Aroostook doesn’t really have a competitive advantage for these things versus the rest of the state. Of course, we have gorgeous lakes and rivers and forests, but frankly the entire state is completely stuffed with gorgeous lakes and rivers and forests. Sure, we have friendly locals and a peaceful, quiet way of life, offering respite from the frantic bustle of the cities, but that’s also true for most of the state….
我想知道,當其他許多地方的中餐館倒閉時,該州的中餐館能在勞動力短缺的情況下生存下來,是不是因爲他們可以選擇從家鄉引進家庭成員?我認爲這是一個合理的理論。
Sebec Lake, Maine. Image taken by me in early October.
旁邊一個看起來20多歲的商場清潔工告訴我,她把商場的衰落歸咎於附近的沃爾瑪(Walmart)。
At the end of the day, camping or hunting destinations in the central and southern part of the state are much easier to get to…and are located in larger communities that have more to offer to tourists in terms of local festivals, dining, and shopping. Although northern Maine does have its share of quirky local festivals and events, the dining and shopping options up here are likely to underwhelm - remember that thanks to the labor shortage I discussed in Part I, we can barely keep restaurants open!
「我們先是失去了凱馬特超市,然後是西爾斯購物中心,現在只剩下傑西潘尼(JCPenney)。我甚至不知道誰會在傑西潘尼購物,真不敢相信他們還開著....這裏的所有商店都關門了,我想大概沒有顧客了,真是太遺憾了,我們甚至都沒有購物中心了,不過我想這裏的商店都比沃爾瑪貴。你知道去年這裏新開了一家餐廳,兩個月後就關門了?他們把所有的桌椅都留下了……非常漂亮的木桌椅。」
Before visiting NMDC, I stopped in at the Aroostook Centre Mall in Presque Isle. With a population of 8800, Presque Isle is the largest city in Aroostook County (although its population has declined over 15% since 1990). Visiting the mall, I was shocked at how empty it was - it was a ghost mall, like something you’d see in China. The key difference is that Maine’s ghost infrastructure is post-people, while China’s is pre-people.
將鎮上所有的雜貨店和零售商店合併成一個沃爾瑪可能很方便,甚至對當地人的錢包有好處,但它肯定對尋找本地特色商店的遊客沒有太大的吸引力。
I remember when I went to the mall as a kid that the food court would be so busy, you’d have to walk around for 10 minutes with your tray waiting for a seat to open up. Now, the whole mall has less than five stores open and the food court has just one lonely restaurant left (a Chinese place, ironically)
我問NMDC的喬恩,對於我家鄉肯特堡正在試圖吸引更多遊客和扭轉衰落的鎮長,他有什麼建議。他坦率地告訴我,這樣的問題沒有真正好的答案。他們沒有權力(或資金)將整個小鎮打造成一個旅遊目的地,擁有成功所需的所有景點、住宿和公共關係,就像中國試圖在農村做的那樣。
The Chinese restaurant owner’s name is Winnie and she’s from Hong Kong, via San Francisco. From behind the cash register, she told me she’s watched all her neighbors close, one by one, as the mall foot traffic dried up over the years. But, she still gets business from loyal customers who come to the mall just to pick up takeout from her restaurant, the only light in an otherwise dark food court.
NMDC所能做的是爲新的以旅遊爲導向的企業提供財政支援,並提供資訊諮詢,以幫助該鎮定位自身。他們可以透過在「訪問阿魯斯土克」網站上的旅遊門戶頁面,將遊客引向本縣。但是小鎮本身必須制定自己的發展計劃,必須培養有雄心的企業主,必須分配資金投資關鍵的基礎設施,必須在網上推銷自己。
I ask Winnie if she would consider opening a standalone restaurant outside the mall if it closed down. “No…I wouldn’t” she says. “I’m tired. My daughter doesn’t want to work here. She’s studying in Hong Kong. When this mall is done, I’m done.”
因此,這個城鎮是否有一個積極的、以成長爲中心的模式取決於管理這個城鎮的關鍵官員的個性。如果社區中有影響力的人更加保守,那麼整個小鎮的旅遊、行銷和發展方法也會更加保守。
I wonder if the Chinese restaurants in the state have survived the labor shortage while so many other places have failed because they have the option to bring in extended family members from back home? It’s a plausible theory I think.
我的一個高中朋友參與了當地一家雪地摩托俱樂部的運營,他告訴我,老一輩的商業領袖退休(爲更懂社群媒體和廣告的年輕人讓路)對他們的發展很重要。她說,由於他們在網上的努力,他們雪地摩托俱樂部的遊客會員在過去幾年裏一直在成長,現在一些會員說,他們在這裏旅行時很難找到住宿。當然,像其他類型的企業一樣,投資建設旅遊酒店需要「你建了,他們就會來」的思維。
A nearby mall cleaning staff who looked to be in her mid-20s told me she blames the nearby Walmart for the decline of the mall.
這類具體工作在肯特堡一直是出了名的具有艱難。2004年,我們鎮主辦了2003-2004年冬季兩項世界盃(Biathlon World Cup)的一個賽段,這一激動人心的時刻吸引了近2萬名國際觀衆來到這裏,爲他們的運動員贏得獎牌和榮譽而歡呼。這對小鎮來說是一筆巨大的交易,也是緬因北部冬季運動經濟發展的巨大機遇。幾年後,冬季兩項世界盃(Biathlon World Cup)的組織者希望肯特堡(Fort Kent)能建造一座能容納更多觀衆和運動員的酒店,這是能夠再次舉辦這項賽事的先決條件。該鎮的規劃委員會在這個問題上猶豫了很久,最終認爲他們無法證明這項開支的合理性。普雷斯克島建造了酒店,他們獲得了世界盃的舉辦權。現在,世界級的運動員在我們的賽道上訓練,享受我們精心打理的雪地,但我們沒有舉辦任何大型賽事。
“First we lost Kmart, then Sears, and now there’s only the JCPenney left. And I don’t know even know who shops at JCPenney…I can’t believe they’re still open….Everything else in here closed…I guess there’s no customers…It’s really a shame…We don’t even have a mall anymore…But I guess the stores in here were always expensive compared to Walmart. You know a new restaurant opened in here last year and closed after just two months? They left all their tables and chairs behind…really nice wood tables.”
在一個小鎮上,一個有影響力的地方人物或領袖就可以控制整個社區的發展,常常促成或破壞整個社區的發展。這一智慧既適用於緬因州,也適用於中國農村。
Consolidating all the variety and retail stores in town into one Walmart might be convenient and even good for the locals’ pocketbooks, but it sure doesn’t have much of a draw for tourists looking for cute local shopping.
離我長大的地方不遠的一個小鎮就住著這樣一個人。這位當地的大人物現在已經退休了,他在緬因州當了幾十年的州議員,把自己打造成了一個有權有勢的人,以在他的權力範圍內盡一切努力照顧他的選民的利益而聞名。在我們縣,他被視爲當地政治的後臺大佬。他還因參與一些可疑的商業交易而聞名,這些交易引起了不少人的不滿,而且他脾氣暴躁(尤其是在被問及商業交易時)。
I asked Jon at NMDC what he would tell the town manager of a small town like my hometown of Fort Kent who is looking for a “solution” to attracting more tourists and reversing the town’s decline. He told me candidly that there’s no really good answer to a question like that. They don’t have the authority (or the funding) to mold an entire town into a tourist destination with all the attractions, lodging, and public relations it needs to be successful, the way China is trying to do with its countryside.
但是,每個人都知道,當一個本地出身的學生需要在國會大廈做暑期實習時,或者當一家本地企業有棘手的監管問題需要解決時,他也慷慨地奉獻了自己的時間和資源……而且,我們的道路總能獲得撥款,在春天重新鋪設,原因可能就是他。現在他退休了,在這裏做事就困難多了。
What NMDC can do is provide financial support to new tourism-oriented businesses and provide information consulting to help the town position itself. They can shunt tourists in the direction of Aroostook County with the tourism portal page they maintain at Visit Aroostook. But the town itself has to decide how aggressive they want to be with their development plan, has to cultivate its own entrepreneurs with big ideas, has to allocate funds to invest in the key infrastructure, has to market itself online.
NMDC的喬恩告訴我,阿魯斯土克縣過去是緬因州立法機構中的一支強大力量,因爲本地立法者過去都在地方事務上聯合投票,不分政黨。這意味著我們可以一直依靠立法者的統一戰線……至少過去是這樣的。但是阿魯斯土克縣的立法者現在不作爲一個整體投票;現在他們按照黨派路線投票。也許這只是國家層面上黨派偏見的反映。或者也許是因爲那個曾經鞭策他們結成統一戰線的傢伙最終退休了。如今,當地立法者的影響力比過去少了很多。他們似乎忙於在州府奧古斯塔打文化戰,無法在經濟戰中團結一致,所以他們都可能丟掉大本營的選票。
So, whether the town has an aggressive, growth-centric model depends on the personalities of the key players who run the town. If the influential people in the community are more conservative, then the town’s entire approach to tourism, marketing, and development will be more conservative.
我們的州參議員叫特洛伊•傑克遜。他是現任緬因州參議院議長,也是我一位高中校友的父親。在我離開緬因州的前幾天,我在當地的一個工藝品集市上偶遇了他。我已經14年沒見過他了,但我想他還是認得我。即便他沒有認出我,他也很好地掩飾了。在我個人看來,傑克遜是個好人。
A high school friend of mine who is involved with running a local snowmobile club told me that the older generation of business leaders retiring (and making way for younger people with more social media and advertising savvy) has been important for their growth. She said tourist membership in their snowmobile club has been growing consistently for the last few years thanks to their online efforts, and now some members have reported trouble finding accommodations on their trips up here. Of course, investing in building tourist hotels, like other types of businesses, requires “if you build it, they will come” thinking.
我在閒聊中趁機提到,我正在寫一些關於阿魯斯土克縣和中國農村對比的東西,這就變成了一場完整的對話。我告訴他,中國對任何事情都採取「你建了,他們就會來」的態度——尤其是基礎設施和發展。這讓傑克遜立刻活躍起來。
That specific effort has been famously challenging in Fort Kent. In 2004, we played host to a leg of the 2003-2004 Biathlon World Cup, an exciting episode that brought nearly 20,000 international spectators into town to cheer their athletes on to medals and glory. It was a huge deal for the town, and a big opportunity for the development of the winter sports economy in northern Maine. A few years later, the organizers of the Biathlon World Cup wanted Fort Kent to build a hotel that could accommodate more spectators and athletes as a prerequisite for being able to host the event once again. The town’s planning committee hemmed and hawed over it for ages, and eventually decided they couldn’t justify the cost. Presque Isle built the hotel instead, and they got to host the World Cup. Now, world-class athletes train on our trails and enjoy our well-groomed snow, but we aren’t hosting any big events.
「我們就需要這個!我們需要第一件事就是更多的寬頻網路覆蓋。什麼樣的企業會有興趣把他們的辦公室建在網路如此糟糕的地方?」
Chapter 5: Local Politics are Tricky Anywhere
「我同意,」我告訴他。「別提5G甚至4G了,我們這裏幾乎沒有3G的速度。」
In a small town, a single influential local personality or politician can exert control over the development of an entire community - often making…or breaking…development. This wisdom holds as true for Maine as it does in rural China.
他說:「如果我們能得到信號的話!還有很多盲區。這是我們目前正在做的事情之一,安裝兩座新的信號塔。」。
A town not far from where I grew up is home to such an individual. Retired now, this local VIP spent many decades as a Maine state legislator, building himself into a power player with a reputation for doing everything in his power to take care of his constituents’ interests. He was even seen as a bit of a political kingmaker in our county. He was also known for being involved in some shady business dealings that raised more than a few eyebrows and having a fierce temper (especially when asked about the business dealings).
我告訴他,中國農村的基礎設施發展基本上是自上而下的,由國家投資資金驅動。我解釋中國核心思維是:「我們國家的發展依賴於農村地區的勞動力;現在是國家反哺農村的時候了。」
But. Everyone knows that that he was also generous with his time and resources when a local student needed a summer internship down in the capitol, or when a local business had a gnarly regulatory problem that needed fixing…and that he’s probably the reason that our local roads always had appropriations to be freshly re-paved in the spring. And now that he’s retired, it’s a lot more difficult to get things done up here.
我能看到,他的眼睛因這個想法而亮了起來,我早就猜到了。在他從政之前,傑克遜一家已經出了五代工會會員伐木工人,我很確定他仍然花大量的時間在森林裏工作。當州參議員又賺不了多少錢。
Jon at NMDC told me Aroostook County used to be a powerful force in the Maine state legislature because the local legislators used to all vote together on local matters, regardless of political party. This meant we could always count on a unified front from our lawmakers…or at least we used to. Aroostook County lawmakers don’t vote as a bloc these days; now they vote along party lines. Maybe it’s just a reflection of partisanship at the national level. Or perhaps it’s because that guy who used to whip them into shape finally retired. These days, local lawmakers have a lot less leverage than they used to. Seems they’re too busy fighting culture wars down in Augusta to come together on the economic war that they’re all in danger of losing back home.
「這很有趣。我從來沒有這樣想過,但這是一個很好的描述方式」。他的語氣平靜下來,聲音稍稍降低。「但你知道,在緬因州……在這裏,人們稱之爲……社會主義」,很難有這樣的政府支出和政府管理。
Our state senator is named Troy Jackson. He’s the current Maine Senate President….and also the father of a friend from high school. A few days before I left Maine, I bumped into him at a local crafts fair. I hadn’t seen him in 14 years, but I think he still recognized me. If he didn’t, he played it off well. Jackson’s a good guy, in my personal estimation.
我們還討論了勞動力短缺的問題,他證實這是整個州的一個大問題。他告訴我:「人們的家庭不再是像過去那樣的大家庭了……下一代的人口要少得多。」但是傑克遜有一個主意來提振緬因州搖搖欲墜的勞動力市場:爲什麼不鼓勵更多的合法移民到緬因州?幾十年來,緬因州南部,特別是我們的第二大城市劉易斯頓,已經成爲來自東非,特別是索馬利亞的新移民的目的地。傑克遜認爲,這可能有助於解決入門級勞動力短缺的問題。
Maine Senate President and local guy Troy Jackson
「我不想稱之爲種族主義,因爲這不是一個恰當的詞,但確實有很多……」
While making small talk, I took the opportunity to mention I’m writing something about Aroostook County and rural China, and that turned into a whole conversation. I told him about China’s “if you build it, they will come” approach to everything - especially infrastructure and development. This got Jackson animated immediately.
「無知?」我補充道,試圖提供幫助。
“We need that here! The first thing we need to do up here is just get more broadband coverage. What kind of business would be interested in putting their office up here with such poor internet?”
「對,沒錯,就是無知。每當我們談論移民問題時,我都能在人們的眼中看到....但是讓我告訴你,當我在路易斯頓的競選總部和一些索馬利亞移民一起工作時,他們工作非常努力!我認爲,如果他們想在這裏工作,那還有什麼問題?」
“I agree,” I tell him. “Forget about 5G or even 4G, we barely have 3G speeds up here.”
在阿魯斯土克,我懷疑大多數人沒怎麼接觸過移民,不會對他們有任何特別的看法,不管他們是否無知。然而,考慮到這裏對任何「來自外地」的人的普遍的孤立和懷疑程度(特別是那些開著馬薩諸塞州或康乃迪克州車牌汽車的人),這肯定需要一個靈活的方法。然而歸根到底,與其眼睜睜地看著社區裏的每一家企業因爲找不到足夠的工人而倒閉,我認爲人們還是能夠處理這個問題。
“If we can get a signal at all! There’s still so many dead zones. That’s one of the things we’re working on right now, getting two new towers installed” he says.
第五章:結論——這一切意味著什麼?
I tell him how the rural infrastructure development in China’s countryside is mostly top-down, driven by national investment money. I explain how China’s core philosophical foundation for this is basically: “our country has grown on the back of labor from the rural areas; now it’s time for the nation to repay the countryside.”
我的文章也許有點標題黨。緬因州和中國之間的直接對比肯定會有些牽強。人口密度的比較尤其搞笑;我的家鄉阿魯斯土克縣的全部人口,與一個典型的中國鄉鎮差不多,但面積可能有幾個中國的縣那麼大。
I can see his eyes light up with that concept, as I could have guessed they would. Before he entered politics, Jackson was a 5th-generation union logger, and I’m pretty sure he still spends a good amount of time working in the woods. It’s not like you make the big bucks as a state senator.
但很明顯,兩國對自己的農村地區及其經濟得出了相同的結論:二者都面臨困境,需要拯救。他們面臨的問題的確切性質並沒有太大的不同。
“That’s very interesting. I’ve never quite thought about it like that, but it’s a good way to describe it”. His tone sobers and he lowers his voice slightly. “But you know it would be so difficult to have that kind of government spending and government management in Maine…around here, people call that…socialism”.
我以前在寫作中提到過一個關於城市化的常見理論,大意是:城市化纔是人類社會正常的方式。更多的人生活在城市裏效率更高,而爲農村居民提供食物、醫療、基礎設施和服務則會低效地消耗資源。農村生活是一個不合時宜的現象。這一理論的支持者可能會說:無論你是否同意,認爲它是否可取,它已經在發生了,因爲它是我們社會發展方式的最自然結果。
Indeed.
像中國和緬因州正在進行的工作,則代表了對這種理論的排斥。相反,他們主張農村和農村生活方式是我們世界的重要組成部分,值得運用資源去拯救。農村不僅僅是供城市人參觀的地方,也是農村居民享受高質量生活的地方。
We also discuss the labor shortage and he confirms that it’s a huge problem across the whole state. “People just don’t have the large families like they used to…the next generation is much smaller” he tells me. But Jackson has an idea for bolstering Maine’s faltering labor force: why not encourage more legal immigration to Maine? For several decades now, southern Maine, especially our second-largest city of Lewiston, has become a destination for recent immigrants from East Africa, particularly Somalia. Jackson thinks more of this could help with the entry-level labor shortage.
雖然兩地都在做出努力,但總的來說,我認爲大規模的社會改造項目與中國的發展模式更匹配。在這篇文章中,我使用了多少次 "如果你建設了,人們就會來 "這句話?除了這句話,你還能怎樣總結中國的國家建設方法?從高鐵線路到鄂爾多斯市的規劃,都體現了這種方法。當國家承擔了投資風險時,它甚至還是風險嗎?對當地人來說不是風險,也許對全國性的貸款銀行來說,的確是風險。
But, he acknowledges, it’s a sensitive issue.
美國緬因州顯然不能遵循這種模式。即使在州或聯邦層面有資金用於這樣的項目,但要試試建設一個新的旅遊景點,或升級其基礎設施等項目,其背後的政治意願需要長期維持,比美國的一個選舉週期長得多。這些項目需要多年的時間來實現和看到結果,但在這期間,無論哪個黨派碰巧執政,其政治對手都會毫不留情地攻擊現任者,指責其不能迅速取得成果,不能有效地花錢,不能準確地代表選民的意願等等。
“I don’t want to call it racism, because that’s not the right word for it, but there’s just a lot of…”
此外,任何擬議的計劃都不可避免地會與某些利益集團的利益相沖突,他們會非常樂意發起一場運動來阻止它,即使是那些看起來應該是皆大歡喜的事情。比如將一塊荒地指定爲國家公園,最終也會讓那些幾十年來一直在使用這塊圖的的獵人或戶外運動者感到不快。
“Ignorance?” I supply, trying to be helpful.
如果緬因州能夠成功,這將歸功於具有強烈願景、高風險容忍度、對勞工問題採取創造性方法以及善於獲得地方民意支援和共識的民營部門領袖。考慮到這裏人口稀少,不太可能每個社區都能出現這樣的領袖。這意味著一些社區將存活下來,而一些社區將凋零。
“Yes, that’s right, ignorance. Any time we talk about immigration issues, I can see it in people’s eyes….But let me tell you…when I had my re-election campaign headquarters in Lewiston and we were working with some of those Somali immigrants…they just work so hard! I think… if they want to be here and they want to work…then what’s the problem?”
在偉大的美國拓荒神話中,迎接和克服挑戰需要 "適者生存",需要 "命運眷顧勇敢者",還需要 "自助者天助之 "的精神。這些格言用於證明贏家的勝利和輸家的失敗都是合理的,不管運氣或預先存在的條件在多大程度上發揮了作用。我相信,如果美國農村能振興的話,這種哲學也會被應用到美國農村振興中。一些社區將生存和繁榮,"因爲他們奮鬥獲得了成果"。至於那些消亡的社區——也許也是他們應得的。
Up in Aroostook, I doubt most people have enough experience with immigrants to have any particular opinions about them, ignorant or otherwise. However, considering the general insularity and level of suspicion up here towards anyone “from away”, (with special emphasis on all people with MA or CT license plates), it definitely would need a deft approach. At the end of the day, though, if the alternative is watching every business in the community close because they can’t find enough workers, I think people can and will get over it.
(順便說一句,也不是中國的每個村莊都能在倖存下來。那些在任何方面都無法競爭的村莊,似乎沒有機會吸引遊客或刺激當地的就業成長......它們只會被推平,其居民被轉移到其他地方。一些社會學家和發展規劃者不是在名義上進行平等的自然選擇過程,而是積極地做出這些選擇。但結果很可能是相似的)。
It’s an election year for Jackson and the vote is just days away. His opponent has been coming after him pretty hard with attack ads, so he probably can’t afford to make a sensitive topic like immigration part of his platform. It’s a shame, because I think it’s a pretty good idea. After bumped into Jackson, I took a look at his campaign website. Despite the labor shortage on everyone’s mind, his site still lists “Jobs” as one of his core policy platforms. Considering everything I’ve learned in the last few weeks, I wonder whether it shouldn’t read “Labor” instead?
我能夠明確地說,我在理論上更偏好哪種發展方式嗎?不能。美國的方式似乎自然而然地適合美國的鄉村,而中國的方式似乎對中國的鄉村更有道理。但這可算不上洞察;這只是一個稍加修飾的同義詞。
Last Part: Conclusions/What Does it All Mean?
如果在緬因州採取中國式的措施,會不會產生一個充滿了活力、健康、人民安居樂業的小城鎮的鄉村,由自上而下的規劃和慷慨的財政支撐的、自我推動的經濟?還是會產生空洞的殭屍村鎮,透過泵氧來維持生命,對國家的納稅人來說只不過是一種負擔?如果將緬因州的鄉村振興模式應用於中國農村,會不會導致每個小村莊都湧現出各種創業人才,農村的財富積累遠遠超過自上而下的 "水漲船高 "方法所能達到的速度?或者會產生新的封建領地、腐敗和創造地方不平等的最新方式?
Obviously, my title was a little clickbait-y. A direct comparison between Maine and China is always going to be strained. The population densities are especially hilarious to compare; my entire home county of Aroostook has about the same population as a typical Chinese township but probably takes up the space of several Chinese counties.
當然,我對這些都沒有答案;歸根結底,我仍然只是這個思維實驗的導遊,而不是教員。請大家恕我才疏學淺。
But it’s clear that both countries have come to a conclusion about their rural communities and the economies that drive them: they need saving. And the exact nature of the problems they face are not so dissimilar.
但我希望,我已經爲宣傳家鄉北緬因州盡了自己的一份力量。如果你曾經想過訪問緬因州,而你的旅行計劃只延伸到(緬因州旅遊熱點)巴哈伯(Bar Harbor)和阿卡迪亞國家公園(Acadia National Park);如果你認爲世界在班戈鎮(Bangor)就結束了......我衷心地建議你在下一次旅行中再大膽一點。我們會感激不盡。你應該這麼玩:
I’ve mentioned before in my writing a common theory of urbanization that basically goes: urbanization is the natural way of the world. It’s more efficient for more people to live in cities and it consumes resources inefficiently to provide food, healthcare, infrastructure, and services to rural residents. Rural life is an anachronism. Proponents of this theory might argue: whether you agree with it or not, think it’s desirable or not, it’s already happening, because it’s the most natural outcome of the way we’ve arranged our communities.
沿著95號州際公路一直走到謝爾曼(Sherman)出口,然後按路牌指示向帕滕(Patten)方向行駛。沿著11號公路開拓你的足跡(但不要開得太快,不然會被州警察抓到,或者會撞到麋鹿),然後駛入帕滕。到巴克斯特州立公園(Baxter State Park)、卡塔丁山(Mount Katahdin)以及新的森林和水域國家紀念公園觀光。接著向北走,然後向東,在馬普爾頓(Mapleton)的乾草山(Mount Haystack)上徒步旅行。去看看費爾菲爾德堡(Fort Fairfield)的緬因州土豆花節和普雷斯克島(Presque Isle)的新越野滑雪道。來看看肯特堡的狗拉雪橇比賽和馬達瓦斯卡的阿卡迪亞節。繼續向北,向北,直到電線杆消失,地塊沒有名字。直到英語的 "歡迎來到我們鎮 "的牌子開始變成法語,空氣中瀰漫着清脆的樹葉、蘋果和發黴的泥土的味道,在無盡的黑夜中你至少能看到一百萬顆星星。直到你不記得完整的手機服務是什麼樣子,你開始考慮買一個橙色的狩獵帽,並想知道你穿法蘭絨是否好看......
Efforts like what are going on in China and Maine represent a rejection of this theory. They assert instead that rural life and rural lifestyles are vital components of our world, worth funneling resources into saving. The countryside is not just for urbanites to visit, but also for rural dwellers to enjoy a high-quality lifestyle in.
在你離開之前,確保你有時間去探訪當地的早餐店,當女服務員問你是否想在你的早晨的「泥咖啡」中摻一小杯咖啡白蘭地(很可能是艾倫牌的)時,你就說 "好",然後消滅一疊沾滿黃油和緬因州楓糖漿的自制蕎麥煎餅,再用魁北克口音的法語說一句:「我X,太棒了!」 (C』est bon ça, tabarnak!)
While both places are making efforts, in general, I think massive social-terraforming projects are a more natural match for the Chinese development model. How many times did I use the phrase “if you build it, they will come” in these two essays? How else but with this phrase could you summarize China’s approach to the construction of its country, embodied in everything from high speed rail lines to Ordos City? When the country underwrites the investment risk, is it even risk at all? Not for the locals…not really. For the national lenders perhaps.
作者是常駐中國的能源行業分析師。
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